9X Vietnamese impresses American scientists with AI model to predict floods

Dr. Tran Ngoc Vinh is the author of a project on flood forecasting using AI combined with physical models, achieving 6 times higher accuracy, tested across the United States.

At the age of 34, Dr. Tran Ngoc Vinh - a researcher at the University of Michigan (USA) is the main author of a groundbreaking work in flood forecasting, combining artificial intelligence (AI) with physical modeling. This helps increase accuracy by 6 times compared to traditional methods. The model has been successfully tested across the United States.

Mr. Vinh is also the co-author of 8 patents granted in Korea, dozens of articles published in international journals in group Q1 (most prestigious), and several specialized books on hydrology.

Dr. Tran Ngoc Vinh - Author of the work "AI can improve the accuracy of flood forecasting on a continental scale" (Photo: NVCC)

Turning point of life

In 2009, young student Tran Ngoc Vinh registered for the Mathematics and Information Technology major at the University of Natural Sciences (Hanoi National University) but was not accepted. He was placed in the Department of Hydrometeorology and Oceanography . Initially, he planned to retake the exam, but realizing that “the major had few students and high employment opportunities”, he decided to stay in the capital to pursue this major.

In his second year of university, faced with choosing a major, Vinh found the Meteorology class too crowded so he enrolled in the Hydrology class. Through field surveys in many provinces, especially the Central localities often affected by storms and floods, he struggled with two questions: "Is it possible to forecast natural disasters?" and "What can we do to minimize the damage caused by floods?". From then on, he chose to stick with the field of natural disaster forecasting throughout his academic career.

Throughout his university years, working life, and graduate school, Vinh's research topics were all related to natural disasters, especially flood forecasting.

“ This relationship has been with me for 10 years, so I gradually became familiar with it and invested more in research. Many of my current and future topics still focus on flood disaster forecasting. It is not right to say it is just a passion, because society still needs a lot of research and disaster forecasting products. If one day society no longer needs it, it means that natural disasters will no longer affect human life. That is the best thing that can happen ,” the young doctor confided.

After graduating in 2014, Vinh worked at the Center for Environmental Hydrodynamics of the University of Natural Sciences . Three years later, the young man received a scholarship from Ulsan University (Korea) as a graduate student in Civil Engineering.

Dr. Tran Ngoc Vinh (first from right) is the President of the Vietnamese Student Association at Ulsan University (Photo: NVCC)

During his first time in Korea, Vinh encountered many difficulties in culture, lifestyle, and communication with his supervisor. He said that at first, the professor asked many questions and doubted the results and proposed ideas. Undaunted, he decided to turn the professor's doubts into motivation to strive.

He suggested increasing the frequency of meetings with the professor from once to three times per week, both to speed up the research progress, to demonstrate his ability and to change the professor's view of Vietnamese students. The workload increased, but he was not pressured.

Looking back on nearly 5 years of being a PhD student in Korea, Mr. Vinh admitted that the pressure he put on himself was greater than the requirements of his supervisor. There was a period when his life was almost unbalanced, working more than 15 hours a day, many nights working hard until 6-7 am to go to sleep. However, it was this harsh period that helped him realize his true passion and the path he wanted to pursue, laying the foundation for his future breakthrough projects.

"Causing a fever" with research using AI to predict floods

Not "settled" in Korea, in 2022, Tran Ngoc Vinh found a way to go to the US. The American Dream has been present in the young doctor since watching the movie "Love Story at Harvard".

Mr. Vinh said that he had never dreamed of going to America before, but his time in Korea made that dream more and more clear. To make it come true, he made a detailed plan through research and connecting with scientists in the US.

" My goal in coming to the US is to exchange with leading professors and learn about science in many advanced countries to develop my career. I have always cherished the dream of working at the world's leading research centers such as NASA ," said Vinh.

He was accepted to 10 universities, but after much deliberation, he chose to start at the University of Michigan (Umich). At that time, Umich was the top public university in the US, and the city of Ann Arbor was one of the best places to live for safety, education and health.

Here, Mr. Vinh takes on the position of research team leader at the Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering. His first project is “Artificial Intelligence to Improve the Accuracy, Reliability and Economic Value of Continental-Scale Medium-Term Flood Forecasts”, to be completed in 2023. The project combines AI with the National Water Model (a hydrological simulation system developed by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) to reduce errors and improve the accuracy of flood forecasts.

Although passionate about traditional flood disaster forecasting models, Vinh understands that human power is limited and cannot forecast on a large scale. In contrast, AI can process huge amounts of data quickly and accurately, while maintaining discipline in forecasting. Combining AI with physical models and human experience is the optimal way to overcome the limitations of each tool.

As the lead author, he is responsible for collecting and processing meteorological data (rain, temperature, wind), flood flows, simulation data from the National Water Model (NWM); designing the overall research framework, building scenarios to evaluate the model's effectiveness; programming, training AI to test across the US with more than 42,000 flood events, and presiding over the manuscript writing and scientific review.

Dr. Tran Ngoc Vinh presented on the phenomenon of urban flooding at the University of Michigan, USA (Photo: NVCC)

According to the author of the topic, traditional flood forecasting models like NWM still have errors that are difficult to simulate mathematically or physically. Based on this assumption, Mr. Vinh applied AI and machine learning experimentally, giving more accurate flood forecasting results than NWM.

The new model helps improve the accuracy of medium-term flood forecasts (1-10 days), thereby improving the efficiency of planning, response and mitigation of flood damage. With fast calculation speed and resource saving, the model is capable of forecasting for nearly 5,500 locations in just a few minutes, meeting the need for early warning on a large scale.

" In practice, the model not only improves accuracy but also provides detailed information, such as the probability of flooding over a specific time period, supporting more effective disaster risk reduction decisions. Notably, the model can run on a regular computer, without the need for a supercomputer," said the Golden Globe Award winner.

As a result, Vinh's group's work was published in 33 international journals, mainly in the Q1 group, typically AGU Advances - the leading journal of the American Geophysical Union.

"Be creative, dare to try and dare to do"

In parallel with flood research, Dr. Tran Ngoc Vinh also published a work on urban flooding in Nature Cities, pointing out the “flood loop – upgrading sewer systems – flooding” and warning that the current drainage system design is not optimal.

He hopes to apply this research in Vietnam to improve flood forecasting and propose optimal drainage system solutions for big cities like Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City.

Dr. Tran Ngoc Vinh received the "Golden Globe" award in October 2025 (Photo: NVCC)

With his efforts and contributions, at the end of October 2025, Dr. Tran Ngoc Vinh was one of 10 outstanding young scientific talents under 35 years old to receive the "Golden Globe" award, presented by the Central Youth Union in coordination with the Ministry of Science and Technology.

" I am happy to receive this award, it is a recognition of my efforts in research. Partly fortunately, the award review period happened at the time of the storm and flood, so people paid more attention to my research ," Vinh shared.

Sending a message to the generation of Vietnamese researchers who "cherish" the aspiration to reach international level, Mr. Vinh emphasized determination and perseverance. Young Vietnamese people are hard-working, but get discouraged very quickly if their work does not produce results in the beginning, especially in research.

" In the era of AI technology development, young people learn faster than before, but competition is also fiercer. Therefore, besides hard work, 'creativity and daring to try - daring to do' is the key to achieving results and maintaining passion for research. Because research is essentially exploring solutions that 'no one has ever done or tried' ," said Dr. Tran Ngoc Vinh.

LINH NHI

Source: https://vtcnews.vn/9x-viet-gay-an-tuong-voi-gioi-khoa-hoc-my-bang-mo-hinh-ai-du-bao-lu-lut-ar986852.html