On the evening of November 26, the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting said that from now until November 28, storm No. 15 will move in a West-Northwest direction, then move mainly in a West direction at a speed of about 20km/h.
From November 28, when the storm moves close to the 113th meridian, the subtropical high pressure weakens, a low pressure trough appears in the westerly wind zone at an altitude of 5,000m, which is likely to change the direction of the storm's movement and there are different possibilities for the path and impact of storm No. 15 on the sea areas as well as the mainland of Vietnam.
According to Mr. Hoang Phuc Lam, Deputy Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, in the next 24 to 48 hours, the intensity of storm No. 15 is forecast to increase. The maximum intensity of the storm can reach level 11 (103-117km/h), gusting to level 14.
In the next 24 hours, the storm will move quite quickly to the west at a speed of about 20-25km/h. "As it moves north and near the shore, it will encounter colder sea surface temperatures, and the cold air will intensify and penetrate deeper into the storm's circulation, so the storm will weaken from around the evening of November 29," said Mr. Lam.
Regarding the main developments of storm Koto, Mr. Hoang Phuc Lam said that the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting proposed two scenarios.
Scenario 1, which is the most likely scenario at present, the storm changes direction to the North when reaching the Northwestern sea of Truong Sa special zone (about 500km east of the Gia Lai - Khanh Hoa coast (probability 80%).
Specifically, when the storm moves to the 113E meridian, the storm changes direction to move north, weakening into a low pressure area, then this low pressure area is likely to drift towards the mainland of the Central provinces, weakening at sea.
With this scenario, the sea area east of the Central East Sea will have winds gradually increasing to level 6-7; the area near the storm center will have strong winds of level 8-9, gusting to level 11, waves 4.0-6.0m high, very rough seas.
From November 27, the Central East Sea area (including the sea area north of Truong Sa special zone) is likely to be affected by strong winds of level 10-11, gusts of level 14, waves of 6.0-8.0m high, and rough seas. There is little chance of storms on land.
The area from Da Nang to Lam Dong is likely to experience a large-scale heavy rain in the first days of December 2025, focusing on coastal areas. According to current analysis, the possibility of rain is not as extreme as the rain from November 16 to 21.
Scenario 2 is worse but has only a 20% probability, the storm does not change direction and enters the Gia Lai - Khanh Hoa area.
With this scenario, the storm's strongest intensity in the northern area of Truong Sa special zone could reach level 11, gusting to level 13. After that, it will move west towards the mainland of the central provinces, focusing on the Gia Lai-Khanh Hoa area. The storm's intensity will weaken to level 8 or a tropical depression.
In this scenario, the storm will cause strong winds in coastal areas from Da Nang to Lam Dong from November 29 with strong winds of level 8, gusts of level 10, waves 3.0-5.0m high, and rough seas.
Coastal areas from Da Nang to Lam Dong may experience heavy rain of 150-250mm between November 29 and December 1. According to current analysis, the possibility of rain is not as extreme as the period from November 16 to 21.
Source: https://cand.com.vn/Xa-hoi/bao-so-15-co-the-khong-anh-huong-toi-dat-lien-nhung-gay-mua-lon-dien-rong-i789346/
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