Rice market fluctuations

In 2023, the global rice market witnessed strong fluctuations due to the export restrictions of India, the world's largest rice exporter. In addition, the increase in climate change has affected key rice-producing countries.

The El Nino phenomenon is expected to persist into 2024 and disruptions to commercial shipping continue to pose risks to global rice supplies. The global rice shortage will worsen as India’s exports of premium rice face new hurdles due to a doubling in shipping costs, said Vijay Setia, former president of the All India Rice Exporters Association. India’s exports of premium basmati rice in January 2024 were half of what they were a year ago.

The Middle East has traditionally been a major market for India’s basmati rice exports. However, shipping times from India to the region have increased by three to four weeks following the outbreak of violence in the Red Sea. India’s commerce ministry is concerned that if tensions persist, basmati rice exports to Egypt and Europe could be affected. Some shippers are selling their stocks in the domestic market at prices around 8% lower than before. This development is threatening global food security this year. Rice is a staple food for billions of people, particularly in parts of Southeast Asia and Africa, where it contributes up to 60% of total calories.

As rice is a staple food in many markets, its price is a key determinant of food inflation and food security, especially for the poorest households. The World Bank (WB) believes that global rice prices will not decline significantly before 2025. Global rice prices in 2023 are estimated to have increased by an average of more than 28% compared to the previous year and are expected to increase by another 6% this year.

THANH HANG

Source: https://www.sggp.org.vn/bien-dong-thi-truong-gao-post725976.html