The Russian Navy once dominated the Black Sea, but repeated Ukrainian attacks have turned it into a dangerous area for Moscow's own warships.
On September 22, residents of the Crimean city of Sevastopol were startled by a loud explosion from the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet, a white building overlooking the famous naval port. Black smoke billowed into the sky and a second Storm Shadow missile slammed into the building.
Ukraine's military and intelligence services said they carried out the attack, which killed 34 Russian officers at the Black Sea Fleet headquarters. Russia confirmed that the fleet's most important building was attacked, but said only one serviceman was missing.
It was a shocking moment for the people of Crimea, showing that the war in Ukraine did not seem to be going according to plan, as the breath of war grew closer to them.
On land, Ukraine’s counteroffensive has been slow, running up against a formidable Russian defense. But at sea, Kiev appears to be having success. Ukraine has regained at least partial control of the Black Sea, making it a dangerous area for Russian warships.
Satellite images taken by Planet Labs in early October show that many of the Black Sea Fleet’s main warships have left the Sevastopol naval base in Crimea. The destroyers Admiral Essen and Admiral Makarov, three submarines, five large landing ships and several small missile boats of the fleet are currently anchored at the port of Novorossiysk in the Krasnodar region of southern Russia.
Another group of ships was transferred from the city of Sevastopol, southwestern Crimea, to the port of Feodosia, located in the east of the peninsula.
Satellite images earlier this month show Russian warships at the port of Novorossiysk in the Krasnodar region of southern Russia. Photo: Planet Labs
Russia has reportedly signed an agreement to build a new naval base, also on the Black Sea coast, in Georgia's breakaway region of Abkhazia. Abkhazia's leader, Aslan Bzhania, said on October 5 that the base would be built in the "near future". "The aim is to increase the defense capabilities of both Russia and Abkhazia," he said.
The Russian Black Sea Fleet has become a “functional failure”, British Armed Forces Minister James Heappey said this week. “They have been forced to disperse to ports to avoid further losses from Ukraine,” he said.
British officials said that the withdrawal of warships from Crimea meant that Russia had "ceded control of the Black Sea" to Ukraine, saying this was as important as last year's counter-offensive in Kharkiv province, which helped Kiev regain a large swath of territory in the country's northwest.
According to former Ukrainian defense minister Oleksii Reznikov, unmanned assets play an important role in efforts to regain control of the Black Sea.
"What is happening in eastern and southern Ukraine will be the last conventional land war. Future wars will be based on high technology. The Black Sea is where we are witnessing important combat tests," he said.
Reznikov added that Ukraine is developing a series of unmanned aircraft and boats. “We don’t have a strong fleet or naval capabilities, but we can attack them with drones,” he said.
Andriy Zagorodnyuk, Reznikov’s predecessor as defense minister, said Ukraine was pioneering a “new form of warfare.” A single unmanned boat packed with explosives costs between $10,000 and $100,000, but when attacked in groups, they can destroy warships worth hundreds of millions of dollars.
"It's a way of doing asymmetric damage to enemy ships. It costs them both time and money. You can't quickly build huge warships to compensate for the damage," he said.
After annexing Crimea in 2014, Russia became the dominant force in the Black Sea, imposing numerous restrictions on Ukrainian shipping in the Sea of Azov and around the port of Mariupol. On the first day of the war, Russia bombed and took control of Snake Island, a strategic territory near the mouth of the Danube. The Russian navy deployed warships along the Black Sea, continuously attacking and shelling Ukrainian coastal cities, supporting ground infantry attacks.
However, the Black Sea Fleet suffered its first major loss in April last year when its flagship Moskva was sunk by two Neptune cruise missiles. By June, Russia was forced to withdraw from Snake Island when Ukraine deployed Western-supplied Harpoon anti-ship missiles on its coast, according to Reznikov.
Successive setbacks on the Black Sea have prompted Russia to accept a grain corridor initiative brokered by Türkiye and the United Nations, allowing ships carrying agricultural products access to the port of Odessa and two other important Black Sea ports.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces have stepped up long-range strikes across the Black Sea, targeting the Crimean peninsula. “We have started attacking them in new ways with missiles and unmanned vehicles,” Zagorodnyuk said.
The Kerch Bridge, which connects Russian territory to the Crimean peninsula, has become the most valuable target in Ukraine’s sights. In October 2022, a massive explosion on the Kerch Bridge collapsed two spans and killed five people.
Russian naval vessels have been gradually reduced to operating ranges in the Black Sea. In the fall of 2022, Reznikov said he exchanged WhatsApp messages with then-British defense secretary Ben Wallace. They discussed supplying Storm Shadow missiles, a weapon that was supposed to be a game-changer for Ukraine.
"We used a special code word, whisky, for weapons. One day Ben told me, 'The strong whisky is coming,'" Reznikov said.
Smoke rises after the explosion of the Kerch bridge connecting Crimea to Russia in October 2022. Photo: AFP
Ukraine has recently stepped up its attacks on Russian bases in Crimea. It claims to have destroyed at least two S-400 air defense systems and a radar station. In September, Ukrainian special forces took control of gas rigs west of Crimea.
Ukraine then launched a missile attack on the shipyard in Sevastopol, damaging a landing ship and a Russian submarine in dry dock. This was the first time since 1945 that Russia had lost a submarine in a conflict. A few days later, Kiev attacked the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet.
These attacks are believed to have been the decisive blow that prompted the Black Sea Fleet to move its warships to the port of Novorossiysk.
However, Dmytro Pletenchuk, a spokesman for the Ukrainian navy, expressed caution, saying that Kiev had dealt a heavy blow to Russia, but it was too early to actually defeat the force.
He said Russia still has many warships to protect the Kerch bridge as well as launch Kalibr cruise missiles at Ukrainian cities.
British intelligence on October 4 accused Russia of planning to sabotage a new humanitarian grain corridor outlined by Ukraine in the western Black Sea. Russia's plan is to use submarines to lay mines and blame Ukraine if any ships are sunk. British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly described this as a "dangerous" tactic.
A Turkish cargo ship hit a mine off the coast of Romania on October 5, where Ukraine’s new humanitarian grain corridor passes. The origin of the mine is unknown and the cargo ship was not badly damaged in the incident.
Still, Ukrainian forces can now operate relatively freely in the Black Sea. A group of Ukrainian intelligence commandos recently landed successfully on the Crimean peninsula and raised the Ukrainian flag. Ukrainian intelligence spokesman Andriy Yusov said that “operations to retake Crimea continue.”
Location of the city of Sevastopol on the Crimean peninsula. Graphics: RYV
Security experts say retaking Crimea is essential to Ukraine's victory and Kiev's counteroffensive on land. "If Russia retains control of Crimea, it can target the entire territory of Ukraine," said Alexander Khara, vice president of the Black Sea Institute for Strategic Studies.
Mr. Khara said Russia is in a difficult situation. Novorossiysk port could be vulnerable to drone attacks and Russia has too few air defense systems to protect all of its naval assets.
“Russia's invincibility in the Black Sea has been broken,” said Yevgeniya Gaber, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.
Thanh Tam (According to Guardian )
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