Only 10% of Europeans believe Ukraine can defeat Russia

The poll authors argue that this is a shift in opinion compared to this time last year. Many Europeans now want politicians to take a more “pragmatic” approach, focusing on defining what an acceptable peace in Ukraine actually means.

“To facilitate continued European support for Ukraine, EU leaders will need to change the way they talk about the war,” said co-author Mark Leonard of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), which commissioned the poll.

A Russian soldier plants the country's flag on a building in the town of Avdiivka, eastern Ukraine - Photo: Moscow Times

A January poll in 12 EU member states - including France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain and Sweden - showed that Ukraine's offensive has stalled, growing concerns about a shift in US policy and the prospect of a second term for US President Donald Trump are fuelling pessimism about a Ukrainian victory.

The poll was conducted before Ukraine withdrew over the weekend from the eastern town of Avdiivka, handing Russia its most significant military victory since capturing Bakhmut in May 2023.

As a result, only one in 10 Europeans across the 12 countries surveyed believe that Ukraine will win on the battlefield, while twice as many (20%) predict a Russian victory. Even in the most optimistic member states surveyed – Poland, Sweden and Portugal – less than one in five (17%) believe that Kiev can prevail.

The fact that most Europeans do not believe Kiev can win militarily, Mr Leonard said, means the most compelling argument to the public is that continued aid “could lead to a sustainable, negotiated peace that is in Kiev’s favour”.

Indeed, the poll also showed that across all countries, the most common opinion, shared by an average of 37% of respondents, is that the conflict will end in a compromise solution.

In Sweden (50%), Portugal (48%) and Poland (47%), respondents were more likely to say Europe should help Ukraine fight back, while Hungarians (64%), Greeks (59%), Italians (52%) and Austrians (49%) wanted to push Kiev to accept a settlement. Opinions were more evenly divided in France, Germany, the Netherlands and Spain.

The poll found evidence that many Europeans increasingly see Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine as a direct concern to them, with 33% saying it has a greater impact on their country – and on Europe (29%) – than the war in the Middle East. And as such, they also want the Russia-Ukraine conflict to end, as quickly as possible.

Nguyen Khanh (according to The Guardian)

Source: https://www.congluan.vn/chi-10-nguoi-chau-au-tin-ukraine-co-the-thang-nga-phan-lon-mong-muon-hoa-binh-post285274.html