Only 22 people to colonize Mars?

An optimistic new study suggests that it would take just 22 people to establish a Mars colony. However, not everyone agrees, with some experts arguing that it will take many more people to establish a permanent human presence on the Red Planet.

Can 22 people live on Mars?

In a study recently uploaded to the database, researchers used a computer program called an agent-based model (ABM) to predict how many people would be needed to sustain a Mars colony. ABM simulates how groups would respond to challenging situations based on their personality types.

Simulation of a future colonization on Mars. (Photo: Getty Images)

The model considers four personality types: agreeable, who are not competitive or aggressive; social, who are extroverted and do well in social settings; reactive, who struggle to cope with changes in routine; and neurotic, who are highly competitive and aggressive.

The model will then vary the amount of each type as it performs key tasks like mining and farming on Mars.

Researchers found that if most people were agreeable or sociable, only 22 people could sustain a society. With more neurotic and reactive people, larger groups are needed to succeed.

Limiting the scale of the first Mars colonizations will be important, because the more people and equipment needed, the more expensive it will be.

However, the study has major limitations. For example, the model assumes that someone built infrastructure for the colonization, such as buildings, vehicles, and other equipment. The first settlers are also assumed to have enough energy for seven years from a mini nuclear reactor, similar to the one that powers the Mars rovers, and receive regular supplies from Earth.

The model also only simulates the first 28 years of the colony. Models are considered successful as long as at least 10 people survive until the end of the mission.

As a result, not everyone believes that a colony with such a small population will ever materialize, especially if the ultimate goal is to create a self-sufficient civilization on the Red Planet.

Create a human colony on Mars?

Just 22 people could survive on the planet for a limited time — provided they had the necessary infrastructure, energy and resources — but they wouldn't thrive, says Jean-Marc Salotti, an astronautics researcher at the IMS (integration of materials to systems) laboratory in Bordeaux, France.

And while the new study's idea of classifying personality types is a smart move, it has its limitations, Salotti says.

“Building and maintaining an autonomous colony on Mars will require more people with more diverse knowledge and skills to overcome the challenges they will face,” Salotti said. “The minimum estimate is 110 people for future missions. A long-term colonization of Mars will also require a much larger genetic pool than 22 people. Otherwise, Martian children will have problems with inbreeding, which will reduce their resilience and increase the risk of diseases or physiological defects that will lead to their elimination.”

In a 2018 paper, researchers calculated that creating a human population genetically capable of surviving a one-way trip to Proxima Centauri, the nearest star system, would require at least 98 people. Salotti said a similar number would be needed on Mars.

(Source: Tienphong/Live Science)

Source