The US government expects economic recovery in the first quarter of 2026.

VTV.vn - The US economy could recover strongly early next year, after facing many pressures during the recent government shutdown.

White House expects growth to return to 3-4% by early 2026

That is the assessment just made by Kevin Hassett, Director of the US National Economic Council. He cited that economists estimate that the recent government shutdown could reduce growth by about 1-1.5 percentage points.

Economists say the US economic outlook is being clouded by weakness in global consumption and trade, slow job growth, high unemployment and persistent inflation. However, strong business investment could help to improve the situation somewhat.

According to a survey by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) released in mid-October 2025, more than 60% of 40 economists surveyed forecast that President Donald Trump’s tariffs would reduce US economic growth by up to 0.5 percentage points. No economists said the tariffs would boost growth. Economists forecast the US economy to grow 1.8% in 2025, up from 1.3% in the June 2025 survey.

The Trump administration is working to address long-term affordability issues and boost consumer purchasing power, Hassett said. This year’s budget deficit reduction will help ease macroeconomic pressures on prices. Finally, he noted that the Trump administration is also focused on housing and how to make life more affordable for people.

On the evening of November 12, the US Congress passed a bill to end the longest government shutdown in the country's history (43 days) after the two houses reached an agreement to reopen federal agencies, thereby bringing hundreds of thousands of employees back to work and receiving pay.

Source: https://vtv.vn/chinh-phu-my-ky-vong-kinh-te-phuc-hoi-trong-quy-i-2026-100251113215929975.htm