However, contrary to the index's upward trend, many investors have seen their accounts decrease, or even suffer losses, creating the paradox of "the market rises - accounts fall" despite the index continuously reaching new highs.
The market rose primarily in large-cap stocks.
According to experts, the VN-Index is projected to increase by nearly 41% in 2025. However, behind the index's impressive surge lies a deeply polarized picture, and not all investors will profit; in fact, many, especially individual investors, will suffer losses.
Explaining why, despite a nearly 41% increase in stock prices by 2025, investors, primarily individual investors, are still suffering losses, experts suggest that although the VN-Index has repeatedly reached historical highs, the market's upward momentum is mainly concentrated in a few large-cap stocks within the VN30 basket. Meanwhile, over 46% of stocks on the market have recorded negative investment results.
"Even the stocks of many companies with strong fundamentals are experiencing prolonged corrections due to the impact of interest rates, macroeconomic factors, and shifts in capital flows," said Mr. Dang Tran Phuc, Chairman of the Board of Directors of AZfin Vietnam Securities Company.
The stock market is not a playground for all investors. (Illustrative image).
According to Mr. Phuc, the unexpected performance of many stocks over the past year also shows that a high-quality company does not necessarily mean a profitable investment opportunity at all times.
"Therefore, instead of chasing short-term, localized rallies, which sustainably accumulate shares of leading companies, investors should prioritize risk management and maintaining portfolio structure. This strategy may result in lower performance than the VN-Index in some periods, but it preserves the portfolio structure and accumulates quality assets, optimizing investment efficiency when the market enters a broader growth cycle," Mr. Phuc said.
Further explaining this, Mr. Dao Minh Chau, Deputy Director of Stock Analysis at SSI Securities Company, said that the core reason lies in the extreme differentiation of the market along with changes in the structure of cash flow.
"The market is operating almost in 'autopilot mode,' with capital flowing strongly into the banking sector and a few large-cap stocks with unique stories, while most other sectors are left behind."
"In particular, the US's deployment of 'Trade War 2.0' starting in early 2025, with tariffs reaching 20-46%, has strongly impacted traditional export businesses – a familiar group of stocks for individual investors – causing portfolio performance to decline," Mr. Chau said.
According to Mr. Chau, the biggest mistake investors made last year was their conservatism and lack of adaptability to the shifting flow of capital.
"Instead of following the smart capital flow toward quality stocks with reasonable valuations and strong financial backing, many investors are waiting for a rebound in sectors that have broken trends or been negatively impacted by macroeconomic factors, leading to missing out on the upward trend of leading stocks," Mr. Chau said.
This game is not for everyone.
Entering 2026, the market began to see more positive signs in terms of capital flow. Although capital is flowing again, experts believe this game is not for everyone.
To avoid a repeat of the "index rising but account not growing" situation in 2026, experts suggest that individual investors need to shift their mindset from "buying based on the index" to a selective stock approach.
According to Mr. Dao Minh Chau, the closing session on January 16th officially confirmed that the VN-Index surpassed its historical peak around 1,879 points. The strong upward momentum occurred towards the end of the session, accompanied by increased trading volume, indicating that buyers were more proactive than in the previous period.
"Currently, although the market has surpassed its peak, it is highly polarized and still poses risks for investors lacking discipline. Therefore, investors should focus on businesses with strong fundamentals, concentrate on core industries, and maintain disciplined capital management to avoid risks when the market experiences strong fluctuations," Mr. Chau said.
Meanwhile, Mr. Dang Tran Phuc also stated that while the stock market has reached a new peak, it does not necessarily mean that all investors will make a profit.
“The market is rising mainly thanks to a few large-cap stocks, while many others are not rising, or even falling in price. Therefore, many investors see the index in the green but their accounts are still in the red. This reality shows that the market is highly polarized. When the index does not accurately reflect the market, investors who buy the wrong stocks or lack patience will find it difficult to profit, even when the market is at its peak,” Mr. Phuc said.
In the long term, a market is only truly healthy when the upward momentum comes from the synergy of many sectors. Given the cautious flow of capital and the lack of a boost from the fundamentals of most businesses outside of the blue-chip stocks, an upward trend based on a few large-cap stocks will be difficult to sustain.
To avoid a repeat of the "index rising but account not growing" situation in 2026, experts suggest that individual investors need to shift their mindset from "buying based on the index" to a selective stock approach.
"The market is no longer moving in sync; instead, capital is concentrated only on businesses with real stories and clear fundamentals, typically the banking sector or businesses benefiting from fiscal policies. Averaging down on weak or broken-trend stocks is considered a mistake to avoid," Mr. Phuc said.
According to Mr. Phuc, investors should prioritize companies with good asset quality, double-digit EPS growth, and a disciplined approach to following large cash flows.
"In 2026, when market valuations remain attractive compared to the long-term average, opportunities will still exist, but they will only be available to investors who choose the right stocks in a context of continued market differentiation," Mr. Phuc advised.
Source: https://vtcnews.vn/chung-khoan-tang-hon-40-mot-nam-vi-sao-nhieu-nha-dau-tu-van-thua-lo-ar998903.html
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