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| According to experts, for Vietnam to achieve its GDP growth target of about 6.5% for the whole year is a huge challenge. |
Not high but not surprising, not too negative
According to many economic experts, the GDP growth rate of 3.72% in the first 6 months of the year is not high, but not surprising and not too negative in the context of many difficulties in the world, many countries have low growth and negative growth. With this growth rate, many international organizations, including the World Bank, still forecast that the growth rate that our country can achieve this year is around 6.5%.
“When we look at this figure from another perspective, we can see the efforts of the Government , the efforts of the business community and the people in the past 6 months, to see more positive points. That is also the basis for us to expect better growth in the third and fourth quarters of this year.
Domestic consumption, reflected in total retail sales and consumer goods revenue, still maintained a fairly high growth rate of about 6.5%. At this rate, total domestic consumption this year could reach 250 billion USD, which will contribute a lot to offset exports," said Dr. Le Duy Binh, an economic expert.
In the first 6 months of the year, the total import and export turnover of goods nationwide reached 316.65 billion USD, down 15.2% over the same period last year, of which exports decreased by 12.1%; imports decreased by 18.2%. The trade balance of goods in the first 6 months of 2023 is estimated to have a trade surplus of 12.25 billion USD.
Regarding the import and export market in the first 6 months of the year, the United States was Vietnam's largest export market with an estimated turnover of 44.2 billion USD. China was Vietnam's largest import market with an estimated turnover of 50.1 billion USD. In the past 6 months, the trade surplus with the United States was estimated at 37.2 billion USD, down 24.9% compared to the same period last year.
In the context of general difficulties, the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector is still a bright spot in the economic picture of the first 6 months of our country with an increase of 3.07%. This result has made an important contribution to the overall growth of the entire economy. The agricultural sector also plays an important role in ensuring food security and socio-economic stability.
“Agricultural, forestry and fishery production activities have made great efforts to maintain stability, meeting domestic consumption needs, meeting people's consumption, and providing input for industrial production. We are also working with the Ministry of Agriculture to calculate the spillover effects from agricultural production to the industrial sector as well as to the entire economy, to see the greater role of the agricultural sector in the national economy,” said Mr. Duong Manh Hung, Director of the Department of Agricultural, Forestry and Fishery Statistics, General Statistics Office.
In the first 6 months of the year, the whole country had 75,900 newly registered enterprises with a total registered capital of 707,500 billion VND and a total registered number of nearly 509,900 employees, a decrease of 0.5% in the number of enterprises, a decrease of 19.8% in registered capital and a decrease of 1% in the number of employees compared to the same period last year.
Meanwhile, the number of enterprises temporarily suspending business for a period of time was 60,200, up 18.2% over the same period last year; 31,000 enterprises suspended operations pending dissolution procedures, up 28.9%; 8,800 enterprises completed dissolution procedures, up 2.8%. On average, 16,700 enterprises withdrew from the market each month.
“We have heard information about the reduction of bank interest rates from the operating interest rate as well as from the mobilization interest rate of commercial banks. However, we have not seen any specific announcement about the reduction of lending interest rates. This is the important thing and the highest and ultimate purpose of reducing interest rates to support businesses. If the lending interest rate is above 10%, businesses will not dare to borrow or if they borrow, it will be very difficult to repay the debt,” said Dr. Nguyen Minh Phong, an economic expert.
The challenge is huge.
Entering the third quarter, our country's socio-economy continues to face many difficulties and challenges; fluctuations in the world's economy and politics, energy security, food security, natural disasters, climate change and unusual and unpredictable epidemics. Therefore, achieving the growth target in 2023 is a huge challenge.
“We will try to connect to get more information from the General Department of Customs to further analyze the import-export situation and clarify what scenarios we need to prepare for the economic picture in the last 6 months of the year. In the context that the economic picture of some countries in the world cannot be restored immediately and is very difficult to predict. To achieve a growth rate of 6.5% this year, the last months of the year will have to increase by 6-7-8-9%. This will be a huge challenge,” Ms. Nguyen Thi Huong, Director General of the General Statistics Office, worried.
The most important goal identified in the final months of the year is to maintain macroeconomic stability. Implement a proactive, flexible, and effective monetary policy, closely coordinating with fiscal policy and other macroeconomic policies. Effectively implement monetary and interest rate solutions to support businesses in recovering and developing production and business.
The relevant agencies need to closely monitor the price movements of essential goods; develop plans to ensure supply, limit sudden price increases, and minimize the impact of inflation on people's lives. Ministries, sectors, and localities also need to focus on implementing drastic solutions to promote disbursement of public investment capital, and programs for economic and social recovery and development.
Actively accelerate the progress of key, important national transport infrastructure projects, inter-regional and international projects, and large urban infrastructure projects. Timely and effectively handle legal difficulties and problems, focusing on immediately handling major bottlenecks and bottlenecks in public investment activities.
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