International experts: The 14th National Congress will shape a prosperous Vietnam by 2045.

Experts believe that the 14th Party Congress marks a strategic shift, clearly defining the growth model and necessary reforms for Vietnam to achieve its high-income status by 2045.

According to international experts, the 14th National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam is taking place at a favorable time for Vietnam to summarize its 40-year journey of reform, while simultaneously establishing a long-term development vision aimed at achieving quality, sustainable, and in-depth growth.

"The 14th Party Congress may adopt landmark strategies that will transform Vietnam into a developed, high-income economy by 2045," Murray Hiebert, a Southeast Asia expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS, USA ) , told Tri Thuc - Znews.

Dr. Murray Hiebert, a Southeast Asia expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in the United States. Photo: CSIS.

Murray Hiebert stated that the 14th Party Congress will be an opportunity for Vietnam to create further momentum for its economy and prepare to enter a new phase of development, in the context of a rapidly changing international environment.

From a long-term perspective, he believes that clarifying growth direction, strengthening institutional foundations, and improving the efficiency of resource allocation will determine Vietnam's ability to achieve a more stable, in-depth, and prosperous state of development in the coming decades, linked to the high-income goal by 2045.

From an economic perspective, Yoshikazu Kato, a researcher at the Rakuten Securities Economic Research Institute ( Japan ), told Tri Thuc - Znews that Vietnam has many favorable conditions to continue maintaining its growth momentum, especially if it accelerates institutional reforms and promotes the role of the private sector.

Towards the goal of Vietnam becoming a high-income country by 2045.

According to Murray Hiebert, the fact that the 14th Party Congress is taking place at the time of the 40th anniversary of the Doi Moi (Renovation) period makes this event particularly significant.

He believes that the Congress will witness significant generational changes in leadership, as the new Central Committee and senior leadership positions are elected. These changes will likely be accompanied by practical policy adjustments to meet the development requirements of the new period.

This is an opportunity for Vietnam to boost its economy and prepare for a new era of development amidst a volatile global geopolitical landscape.

Dr. Murray Hiebert

Specifically, the Party Congress is expected to adopt long-term socio-economic strategies aimed at transforming Vietnam into a developed, high-income economy by 2045, while strongly promoting the national digital transformation – a crucial pillar for enhancing productivity and driving prosperity in the new era.

Simultaneously, the Party leadership will have to address emerging challenges such as an aging population and the dramatic shifts in the global economy.

The 14th National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam is a pivotal moment for the country to reposition its development strategy in the context of a volatile global geopolitical landscape. Photo: Tran Hien.

From rapid growth to quality growth

Both experts believe that after the 14th National Congress, Vietnam's development focus will clearly shift from quantitative growth to qualitative, sustainable, and inclusive growth, thereby ensuring a stable and long-term foundation for prosperity.

"Vietnam possesses a large market, a large population, a relatively young demographic structure, and an abundant industrial workforce – these are the fundamental foundations that create strong growth momentum," said Yoshikazu Kato.

Yoshikazu Kato, a researcher at the Rakuten Securities Economic Research Institute (Japan). Photo: Asia Global Institute.

Furthermore, Vietnam's active membership in ASEAN is considered a significant strategic asset. Coupled with a strong commitment to free trade and regional economic integration, particularly through high-standard agreements such as the CPTPP, Vietnam has a great opportunity to leverage a free, transparent, and fairly competitive economic environment.

However, according to Murray Hiebert, to realize its long-term development aspirations, Vietnam needs to gradually reduce its dependence on cheap labor and resource exploitation, shifting to a growth model based more on innovation, economic efficiency, and high added value.

"The congress will likely emphasize enhancing the resilience of the economy in the face of global recession, supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical tensions," Murray Hiebert commented.

A key point that Mr. Kato particularly emphasized was the role of the private sector. According to him, regardless of the planning phase, the contribution of the private sector to the Vietnamese economy "should never be underestimated."

Although Vietnam has an advantage in terms of labor resources, experts believe that the 14th National Congress will mark a shift from growth heavily reliant on cheap labor and resources to growth based on quality, efficiency, and added value. Photo: Duy Hieu, Nam Khanh, Quynh Danh.

For this sector to truly become a pillar of sustainable growth, rather than merely playing a supporting role to state-owned enterprises and the FDI sector, he suggested that Vietnam needs to continue reforming its legal institutions more strongly.

"A sound and transparent legal environment, with clearly institutionalized market rules, is a prerequisite," Kato emphasized.

High goals, grand ambitions, and the challenge of management.

Regarding the targets of GDP growth of 10% or more and per capita income of approximately US$8,500 by 2030 in the draft Political Report to the 14th National Congress, experts assess these as ambitious but entirely achievable goals.

According to Mr. Kato, the key condition is that the government must build a stable, predictable environment that helps the private sector and the market economy function effectively, while maintaining flexible policy space in the context of strategic competition among major economies.

Vietnam aims for double-digit GDP growth and is orienting its development towards world-class mega-projects and numerous iconic national landmarks in the near future. Photo: Vingroup.

To maintain high but sustainable growth, Mr. Kato emphasized three strategic pillars: reforms to boost domestic consumption; maintaining pragmatic and balanced relations with major powers; and continuing to be a responsible and reliable member of the ASEAN community.

Mr. Kato highly appreciated the efforts to stabilize systemic markets such as real estate, corporate bonds, credit, capital markets, as well as the gold and foreign exchange markets, as mentioned in the direction of the 14th Party Congress.

Following its rapid post-Covid-19 recovery, Vietnam needs to be particularly cautious about the risk of a real estate bubble. Japan's past experience serves as a valuable lesson to consider.

Mr. Yoshikazu Kato

The expert warned that if these markets become unstable, the risk of contagion to the entire economy is significant.

To both control risks and unlock capital for long-term growth, the key factor, according to Mr. Kato, lies in the state's market governance capacity. Fiscal and monetary policies need to be managed flexibly, adapting to the context, while achieving a reasonable balance between stimulating demand and strengthening the economy's supply capacity.

Open policies are key to driving growth.

CSIS expert Murray Hiebert also noted that the competition between the US and China is one of the dominant challenges in the international environment in the coming period, posing difficult problems but also opening opportunities for countries that know how to leverage their position.

In that context, according to him, Vietnam possesses many important advantages to maintain a stable development trajectory, including political stability, positive economic growth momentum, and an impressive track record of attracting foreign investment – ​​fundamental elements for a prosperous development process.

Sharing this view, Mr. Kato emphasized that Vietnam needs to remain steadfast in its path based on free and fair trade, promote domestic consumption, and carefully handle geopolitical issues to avoid being drawn into competition between major powers.

"This can be considered a key strategy for Vietnam's national development," said Mr. Kato.

Strategic competition between the US and China will continue to dominate the international environment in the coming period, presenting Vietnam with an increasingly complex strategic balancing act. Photo: Reuters.

"Vietnam is also fortunate to possess a young workforce with increasingly high levels of education, along with an increasingly deep network of economic and strategic relations with the EU, Japan, India, and South Korea , thereby creating a balance in relations with the US and China," he cited as evidence.

Nevertheless, experts also warn of long-term challenges that cannot be overlooked. The risk of falling into the middle-income trap remains if Vietnam does not continue to accelerate structural reforms and improve productivity.

In particular, climate change is seen as a vital challenge. Vietnam is among the countries most vulnerable to sea level rise and saltwater intrusion, especially in the Mekong Delta and the Red River Delta – key regions for food security and rice exports nationwide, Mr. Murray said.

According to experts, to realize the goals of the 14th National Congress, Vietnam needs to steadfastly shift to a growth model based on productivity, innovation, and modern governance capabilities, while effectively exploiting its advantages in human resources, strategic position, and increasingly deep integration.

With a stable political foundation, ample room for reform, and an increasingly clear vision for development, Vietnam is at a crucial juncture to make a breakthrough and narrow the gap to its goal of becoming a high-income country by 2045 – the 100th anniversary of the nation's founding.

Source: https://znews.vn/chuyen-gia-quoc-te-dai-hoi-xiv-dinh-hinh-viet-nam-thinh-vuong-2045-post1619888.html