Coffee prices today (October 1) increased slightly by VND100/kg in key localities, ranging from VND121,000 - VND122,100/kg. Dak Lak continues to lead with the highest purchase price of VND122,100/kg, followed closely by Dak Nong (VND121,200/kg) and Lam Dong (VND121,100/kg). In Gia Lai alone, coffee prices today remained unchanged at VND121,000/kg.
This slight increase is said to reflect the general trend of the world coffee market. Robusta coffee prices on the London floor and Arabica coffee prices on the New York floor both recorded a slight increase in price.
The price increase of Brazilian Arabica coffee is also noteworthy. The December 2024 delivery period is 323.50 USD/ton, up 0.53%; the March 2025 delivery period is 322.05 USD/ton (up 0.20%); the May 2025 delivery period is 326.65 USD/ton, up 0.37%; and the July 2025 delivery period is 322.60 USD/ton, up 0.40%.
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Coffee price forecast 10/2/2024: Slight increase but not stopping? |
However, in the short term, coffee prices tomorrow (October 2, 2024) are likely to increase only slightly compared to today. This is because the domestic coffee market in Vietnam is currently quite quiet before the new crop season 2024/2025, with the purchase price reduced by 200-250 USD/ton compared to the listed price on the London exchange.
In addition, prolonged rains may make it difficult to harvest and dry coffee, affecting the supply of coffee to the market, which may also cause coffee prices to increase slightly.
In addition, in the long term, coffee prices are expected to continue to increase. According to Mr. Trinh Duc Minh - Chairman of Buon Ma Thuot Coffee Association, Dak Lak province, Vietnam's harvest output is expected to decrease by about 10-15% this season due to climate change and shrinking coffee cultivation area.
“Drought causes trees to produce less and smaller fruit. Heavy rains prevent farmers from harvesting and drying coffee, and also cause difficulties in transportation,” Mr. Minh shared.
In addition, robusta consumption is increasing due to its better heat tolerance and disease resistance than arabica. Volcafe, one of the major coffee traders, forecasts a severe global shortage of robusta in 2024-2025, marking the fourth consecutive year of this situation.
Daryl Kryst, executive vice president of commodity trading at StoneX, predicts robusta prices will fall early next year as prolonged rains impact exports. However, that may not happen until early next year.
Accordingly, coffee prices tomorrow (October 2, 2024) are likely to increase slightly compared to today, but the increase may not be significant. The coffee market will continue to be affected by many factors such as output, demand, weather and world coffee prices. Farmers and coffee businesses need to closely monitor the market to make accurate investment decisions.
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