According to BSC, DHC, a company operating in the paper manufacturing industry, is benefiting from the closure of approximately 200 paper production facilities in Phong Khe ( Bac Ninh province ) at the beginning of 2025 due to failure to meet environmental standards. BSC estimates that the total capacity of the entire industry will decrease by 2 million tons/year (equivalent to a 22% reduction), leading to demand exceeding supply for nine consecutive months (from July 2025 to the present).
In 2026, BSC estimates that the average selling price of paper for Dong Hai Ben Tre JSC (DHC) will increase by 8%, and the average price of Japanese OCC will increase by 2%.
DHC shares are recommended for purchase (illustrative image).
DHC's long-term prospects stem from the Giao Long 3 factory, which commenced construction in December 2025 and is planned to become operational in the second half of 2027 (doubling total capacity).
BSC expects this plant to be operational from the second half of 2028, and by 2030, DHC's EBITDA could increase by 90% compared to 2025 thanks to the plant operating at 90% capacity.
BSC projects DHC's revenue and after-tax profit (minority shareholder) to reach VND 3,931 billion (8% growth) and VND 494 billion (26% growth), respectively. This is mainly due to an increase in gross profit margin from 16.8% to 19.5%.
By 2027, BSC projects revenue and net profit after tax - minority shareholders to reach VND 4,012 billion (2% growth) and VND 472 billion (4% decrease), respectively. The gross profit margin is projected at 18.5%, driven by a 6% increase in industry capacity, which remains higher than the average of 15% for 2021-2025.
BSC has revised its 2026/2027 profit forecast upwards by 22%/13% due to the widening gap between input and output prices (average selling price of paper rolls increased by 8%, but input OCC prices only increased by about 2%). BSC notes that the full-year profit trend will become clearer after the Q2 business results are released – a period significantly impacted by rising transportation costs.
Based on the above data, BSC recommends that investors buy DHC shares with a 2026 target price of VND 47,700/share, equivalent to an upside of 36% compared to the reference price on May 20, 2026, combining the discounted cash flow (FCFF) valuation method and the P/E multiplier.
BSC projects profits in 2026 to reach VND 494 billion (a 26% increase), equivalent to a forward P/E ratio of 6.8x, a 24% discount compared to the average of the 2020-2025 period.
Source: https://suckhoedoisong.vn/co-phieu-dhc-duoc-khuyen-nghi-mua-169260520201229755.htm
Comment (0)