Boost to upgrade national credit rating: Starting a “positive circle” of loosening capital and confidence

VTV.vn - Vietnam is approaching the "safe investment" mark in credit rating, opening up a golden opportunity to mobilize cheap capital and achieve sustainable growth, but is this momentum sustainable?

Improving national credit rating will open up capital markets

International market puts Vietnam in investment sights

Vietnam's move towards the Investment Grade in the national credit rating is not only a technical milestone but also an affirmation of the stability and sustainable development prospects of the economy . This step has been clearly affirmed through the assessments of the world's leading credit rating organizations.

According to S&P Global Ratings and Moody's Investors Service, the country's credit rating has been upgraded from BB to BB+ with a "stable" or "positive" outlook. "This immediately sent a strong signal to the international investor community, who consider credit rating as the first and most important "filter" when deciding to allocate capital," said economist and financial expert, Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu.

According to Mr. Hieu, this upgrade is "activating" a wide range of spillover effects in the financial and economic system. The first and most obvious effect is the reduction in capital mobilization costs and wider access to international financial resources. In an in-depth report, FiinGroup pointed out that if Vietnam achieves the investment target, capital costs for Vietnamese enterprises in the international market can be cut by 100 to 300 percentage points (ie, a reduction of 1.5% to 3% in interest rates). This is a huge number, creating a superior competitive advantage for domestic enterprises.

The chart shows Vietnam's credit rating is approaching the Investment Grade mark, symbolizing capital flows and confidence being upgraded.

In terms of business, the impact of credit rating upgrades is extremely direct and quantifiable. Ms. Trinh Quynh Giao, General Director of PVI AM, emphasized that this is a golden opportunity for Vietnamese enterprises to "optimize their balance sheets". Ms. Giao gave a practical comparison: when issuing international bonds, leading Vietnamese corporations often have to accept foreign currency interest rates of up to nearly 8%. Meanwhile, competitors of the same size in the region with higher ratings only have to pay significantly lower interest rates. Approaching the Investment Grade threshold will automatically reduce country risk, thereby helping large enterprises save hundreds of basis points (2-3%) in borrowing costs. This savings is a strong motivation for enterprises to shift from bank loans to mobilizing long-term international capital, serving large-scale growth projects.

The domestic market has reflected positively. New data from the first 10 months of 2025 shows that the value of issued bonds with credit ratings has reached about VND287.4 trillion, 2.1 times higher than the same period last year. This not only shows the revival of the capital market but also demonstrates the confidence of domestic investors in the prospects of rated organizations.

Economists agree that the above figures and assessments show that Vietnam is getting closer to "investment grade" status - an upgrade that is not only technical but also has comprehensive strategic significance. When we upgrade, it is the world 's recognition of a stable business environment and macro-economy, creating a basis to attract high-quality capital flows, especially long-term foreign direct investment (FDI) and indirect investment (FII). Mr. Hieu emphasized that upgrading the national credit rating is a launching pad for Vietnam to transform from a frontier market to a strategic investment destination, where the cost of national risk is re-evaluated in a more positive direction.

"Positive Circles" and Widespread Impacts: From Government to Business

According to economic experts, when a country's credit rating is upgraded, the spillover effect does not stop at state finances but also permeates the entire business system and economy, forming a "positive circle" that promotes growth and reform.

First of all, the Government is the direct beneficiary. Vietnam will have conditions to mobilize foreign capital more cheaply, from international bond markets or large financial institutions, at significantly lower interest rates. This helps reduce fiscal pressure, improve foreign exchange liquidity, consolidate public debt and create important financial space for policies supporting economic development, such as investment in transport infrastructure, digital infrastructure or renewable energy projects.

Immediately after that, businesses will receive dual and direct benefits. Especially businesses with international trading activities or need to borrow capital in USD. According to FiinGroup's analysis, Vietnamese businesses currently when borrowing foreign capital may have to pay interest rates of up to 8% per year, while equivalent businesses in countries with higher credit ratings in the region only have to pay about half. When a country upgrades its rating, the country risk decreases, so the loan interest rate for businesses is automatically "pulled down". This helps cut huge capital costs, creating incentives for businesses to invest in expanding production, upgrading technology, and participating more deeply in the global value chain.

In addition, the confidence of domestic and international investors has been greatly enhanced. International investors look at credit ratings as a composite reputation index. When confidence is strengthened, foreign capital flows, not only FII but also higher quality FDI, will flow in. Capital market liquidity has improved, and domestic enterprises are also more confident in making long-term investment plans, creating a positive business sentiment across the market.

Moreover, credit rating upgrades promote institutional reform. The improvement of the sovereign credit rating places greater demands on transparency, governance quality, and institutional innovation – from the government to the local level, and extending to individual enterprises. Maintaining a high rating requires Vietnam to continue its reforms: improving public governance, making public finances more transparent, developing deeper capital markets, and effectively controlling public debt. This creates a virtuous cycle, better reforms lead to higher credit, which leads to cheaper and longer-term capital mobilization, which leads to stronger corporate investment, which leads to more sustainable economic growth, and finally, further reforms are consolidated.

How to maintain and exploit the "push" effectively?

However, experts do not ignore the fact that the journey to reach and maintain investment standards is still facing many barriers.

According to Mr. Hieu, the first barrier is the economic structure and systemic risks. Vietnam still depends heavily on bank credit and the state-owned enterprise (SOE) sector. This makes the risks of the banking system and public debt still warned by credit institutions. Financial experts, including representatives from leading auditing firms such as Deloitte, all emphasize that handling bad debts, reforming the banking structure and ensuring the efficiency of public investment are key factors to strengthen the macro foundation, helping the credit rating to be truly sustainable.

In addition, there are barriers in terms of transparency and governance. Although Vietnam has made many strides in institutional reform, public finance transparency and corporate governance, there is still a gap compared to countries in the same credit segment. Issues that need improvement include databases, information disclosure quality, and public debt risk management as well as banking risk.

Improving sovereign credit rating: Key to Vietnam's growth

Notably, according to experts, upgrading is not the final destination. What is important is to maintain and improve the quality of the credit factors, which are sustainable economic growth, stable foreign exchange liquidity, control of public debt, improvement of public investment efficiency, and improvement of the business environment so that investment capital can truly create added value.

Therefore, according to experts, the Government needs to continue to promote macroeconomic stability, proactively control public debt, upgrade the financial and banking system, and ensure that institutional reform commitments are continuously maintained, especially in public finance transparency.

At the same time, management agencies need to build a system of full, timely and transparent information disclosure, strengthen international investor relations to proactively convey messages about economic prospects, and improve the quality of domestic and international credit ratings to support businesses.

Enterprises need to proactively upgrade their corporate governance (ESG), increase financial information disclosure according to international standards, proactively seek and increase access to international capital markets, develop long-term borrowing strategies and gradually reduce dependence on domestic bank credit.

Vietnam's move towards the "investment grade" threshold is not only an important milestone, but also the beginning of a new reform - investment - growth cycle. It is an opportunity for the Government to mobilize capital more cheaply, for businesses to borrow capital at lower costs, thereby investing in expansion, innovating technology and participating in the global chain better, leading to sustainable growth and strengthened market confidence, and ultimately supporting a higher credit rating. If this process is maintained and spread, Vietnam can take advantage of the "boost" of the rating to write a new story in economic development - from financial leverage to structural transformation and raising the country's position in the international arena. Making good use of this opportunity will determine whether the "positive circle" effect can truly operate and multiply in the context of deep and volatile integration today./.

Source: https://vtv.vn/cu-hich-nang-hang-tin-nhiem-quoc-gia-khoi-dong-vong-tron-tich-cuc-noi-long-von-va-niem-tin-100251113155554783.htm