Entering 2026, Vietnam aims for GDP growth of approximately 10% – a record milestone, according to a statement by Politburo member and Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh at the 10th session of the 15th National Assembly.
The head of government emphasized that the Vietnamese economy has clearly demonstrated its resilience to external shocks, thereby maintaining its position among the world's leading fast-growing economies.
How has the Vietnamese economy grown over the past five years?
Previously, during the period 2021-2025, Vietnam's economy grew at an average rate of 6.3%, and for the first time, it aims for double-digit growth from 2026 onwards.
In its latest global economic outlook update, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) assessed Vietnam's economic foundations as quite solid over the past year. Strong year-end consumption , stable investment, and increased labor demand indicate the economy's sustained recovery potential.
The OECD forecasts that Vietnam will continue its positive recovery momentum in the 2026-2027 period, reflecting confidence in the stable macroeconomic environment as well as the flexibility in economic policy management by regulatory agencies.
The World Bank (WB) also maintains its forecast that Vietnam will achieve high growth in 2026, affirming its role as one of the fastest-growing markets in the East Asia-Pacific region.
Similarly, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) predicts that Vietnam's economy will maintain its "resilience" throughout the 2025-2026 period, thanks to export growth, abundant FDI inflows, and effectively expanded public investment.
Meanwhile, KPMG believes that Vietnam is entering a crucial phase of growth, with a focus on industrial production, expanding consumer markets, developing financial services, energy, and high technology. These factors contribute to increased attractiveness for international investors and promote sustainable growth.
To achieve the 10% growth target, Vietnam needs to simultaneously implement many driving forces, with public investment playing a leading role, alongside the development of the digital economy, artificial intelligence, green economy, exports, attracting high-quality FDI, and promoting the role of the private sector.
Strategic infrastructure creates leverage for Vietnamese businesses to participate in value chains.
According to Associate Professor Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang of the National Economics University, if organized and implemented effectively, public investment will become an important "seed capital," activating private investment and FDI flows, while expanding development space for economic regions. Large-scale infrastructure projects will create conditions for domestic enterprises to participate more deeply in the value chain of construction, materials, machinery, equipment, consulting, and operation, instead of just acting as subcontractors.
"In the coming period, Vietnam will enter a peak phase of implementing many strategic infrastructure projects such as the North-South high-speed railway and renewable energy projects. The simultaneous commencement and inauguration of 234 projects nationwide on December 19th, including many large-scale 'mega-projects,' demonstrates the strong determination of the Government in its efforts to promote public investment," Mr. Lang analyzed.
Furthermore, exports and FDI attraction remain important pillars of growth, but the requirement is to improve quality and accelerate the shift towards high value-added sectors such as supporting industries, semiconductors, logistics, and high technology, while strengthening linkages between FDI enterprises and domestic businesses.
Associate Professor Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang also emphasized that the digital economy and artificial intelligence will become new growth drivers, contributing to increased productivity of the entire economy, while opening up many opportunities for startups and small and medium-sized enterprises. Simultaneously, the green economy – especially the formation of a carbon market – is gradually becoming a concrete investment area, attracting significant capital and creating more jobs.
In the long term, the private sector is identified as the decisive driving force.
According to him, continued institutional reforms, simplification of administrative procedures, and opening up capital channels, especially the bond and credit markets, will create a foundation for private enterprises to break through and contribute more strongly to economic growth in the future.
Domestic consumption is the biggest pillar of growth.
Economist Le Dang Doanh, former Director of the Central Institute for Economic Management Research (CIEM), believes that, in addition to traditional drivers, domestic consumption is currently the most important pillar, contributing approximately 60% to economic growth. In the context of significant external fluctuations, strengthening domestic demand is crucial for medium- and long-term growth.
According to him, the US interest rate cut is a positive signal for Vietnamese businesses, as it helps lower USD interest rates, reduce pressure onthe exchange rate , and limit capital outflows from Vietnam. Conversely, for the domestic market, the State Bank of Vietnam is expected to continue maintaining low policy interest rates to support economic growth.
An aerial view of Hanoi (Photo: Tien Tuan).
However, he noted that deposit interest rates could face upward pressure due to competition from other investment channels such as stocks and real estate. Nevertheless, the State Bank of Vietnam and the Government have instructed credit institutions not to increase lending interest rates, meaning the banking system must accept narrower profit margins to support businesses and the economy.
Regarding exchange rates, he believes the outlook for next year will be "easier" as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) enters a cycle of interest rate cuts, and the gold market is also expected to be more stable.
From an overall perspective, the government's target of over 10% GDP growth reflects expectations of a strong recovery, but according to experts, achieving it will not be easy.
"The outlook for 2026 shows that Vietnam will still face many macroeconomic risks, including a tendency for export growth to slow down due to the impact of retaliatory tariffs from the US. Domestic purchasing power, although recovering, is not strong enough to fully compensate; while inflationary and exchange rate pressures show signs of returning," the expert emphasized.
"Overall, Vietnam's economy will maintain its growth momentum in 2026, but the focus will be on maintaining macroeconomic stability, rather than pursuing growth at all costs," he stated.
Harvard expert: Vietnam needs four pillars for rapid and sustainable growth.
Professor David Dapice, an international scholar at Tufts University and the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University (USA), argues that to maintain rapid and sustainable growth, Vietnam needs to focus on four pillars: energy, education, infrastructure, and policies supporting the private sector. Regarding energy, the expert notes that global trends show solar and wind power becoming increasingly cheaper, while the price of battery storage is also falling sharply, making energy storage and use more feasible.
"In the future, Vietnam can certainly consider new energy options such as small-scale nuclear power or geothermal energy. Along with that, building a modern transmission system and allowing private sector participation in the supply chain will create a clean, affordable, and abundant source of electricity, which is a key factor in enhancing the competitiveness of the economy," he emphasized.
Professor David Dapice assessed that with a stable energy supply, Vietnam has the opportunity to develop data centers – a foundation for digital transformation and the application of artificial intelligence (AI). However, to achieve this, it is necessary to reform the data management framework, moving towards a more open and flexible approach, similar to the Malaysian model.
"The government can take the first step, but in the long term, only FDI capital has the scale, technology, and experience to build large-scale projects. For example, Google just announced a $7 billion investment in an AI center in the UK. With a data center, Vietnam can develop AI, a technology predicted to be the main driver of productivity and a vital condition for maintaining competitiveness," he said.
Sharing more details about energy solutions, the expert said that Vietnam aims for renewable energy to account for 30% of the total supply by 2030. He believes this goal is achievable if investment and expansion of transmission infrastructure are accelerated, as the cheapest and most abundant renewable energy sources are concentrated in the central region.
- A bird's-eye view of Hanoi at dawn (Photo: Tien Tuan).
- "Regarding market mechanisms, renewable energy investors need to enjoy stable power purchase agreements similar to those for coal-fired power plants, to ensure the recovery of investment costs. Given the very low variable costs of renewable energy, the application of a transparent bidding mechanism is seen as creating a clear advantage for wind and solar power over coal-fired power," Professor David Dapice observed.
- According to the professor, the cost of energy storage, especially batteries and pumped-storage hydropower, is rapidly decreasing thanks to the emergence of new technologies. Currently, the total cost of renewable electricity with storage has fallen below 10 US cents/kWh, opening up significant room for expansion. Besides its storage role, batteries also contribute to grid stability, but appropriate payment mechanisms for these services are needed. Furthermore, investment in developing smart grids is considered a key factor in effectively integrating variable power sources, requiring not only expanded transmission lines but also enhanced control and monitoring systems.
- "The rapid increase in power-intensive data centers is projected to drive direct power purchase agreements between businesses, renewable energy providers, and storage systems, with EVN acting as the intermediary in transmission. In the long term, nuclear power – especially small modular reactors – is also considered an additional option, given that nuclear power costs in Asia are significantly lower than in the West," Professor David Dapice shared.
- As for education, he believes it needs to shift towards training specific skills and promoting lifelong learning, instead of focusing solely on traditional levels of education. Businesses can participate by developing skills certifications for their employees, similar to Microsoft's widely adopted online training model.
- Dantri.com.vn
- Source: https://dantri.com.vn/kinh-doanh/dong-luc-nao-dua-kinh-te-viet-nam-cham-moc-tang-truong-10-20260216135931439.htm
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