Pepper price forecast June 16, 2024: Continuing the downward trend?

Pepper prices are forecast to continue to decline sharply on June 16, 2024. Over the past 3 days, domestic pepper prices have continuously decreased and suddenly increased sharply. According to experts, this is the result of "overheated" speculation. At the same time, the high pepper prices may trigger some pepper growers and dealers to sell pepper stored from other crops to the market.

Mr. Hoang Phuoc Binh, Permanent Vice President of Chu Se Pepper Association (Gia Lai province), said that the recent rapid growth of pepper prices is the result of speculative factors. Currently, with the increase in prices on the world market, domestic pepper prices are still lower, so many small retailers are taking advantage of this opportunity to hoard goods and push up prices.

The scarcity of supply coupled with increased market demand has pushed pepper prices up again. Some pepper dealers and growers believe that the reappearance of China in the buying market is also a strong factor pushing up prices.

Pepper price forecast June 16, 2024: Continuing the downward trend with no signs of increase

According to the Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association (VPSA), pepper exports to China recovered strongly in May with 3,137 tons, up 381.9% compared to April, but down 69.4% compared to the same period last year. In total, in the first 5 months of the year, pepper exports to China reached only 4,871 tons, down 89.4% compared to the same period last year.

According to VPSA, China's pepper import demand in the first months of the year remains low due to remaining inventories from last year. However, there are signs that China will enter the market, starting with white pepper imports and then black pepper.

Pepper price today, June 15, 2024, in the Central Highlands and Southeast regions decreased sharply from 3,000 - 7,000 VND/kg in some localities, trading around 156,400 VND/kg, the highest purchase price in Dak Lak, Dak Nong, Ba Ria - Vung Tau provinces is 157,000 VND/kg.

Accordingly, Dak Lak pepper price is purchased at 157,000 VND/kg, down 3,000 VND/kg. Chu Se pepper price (Gia Lai) is currently at 155,000 VND/kg, down 5,000 VND/kg compared to yesterday. Dak Nong pepper price today is recorded at a record price of 157,000 VND/kg, down 7,000 VND/kg compared to yesterday.

In the Southeast region, pepper prices today decreased by 6,000 VND/kg. Specifically, in Ba Ria - Vung Tau, it increased to 157,000 VND/kg, down 6,000 VND/kg; in Binh Phuoc, pepper prices reached 156,000 VND/kg, down 6,000 VND/kg.

Domestic pepper price on June 15 , 2024

Province, city	Unit	Trader purchase price	Increase/decrease compared to yesterday
Chu Se (Gia Lai)	VND/kg	155,000	- 5,000
­­ Dak Lak	VND/kg	157,000	- 3,000
Dak Nong	VND/kg	157,000	- 7,000
Binh Phuoc	VND/kg	156,000	- 6,000
Ba Ria - Vung Tau	VND/kg	157,000	- 6,000

At the end of the most recent trading session, the International Pepper Community (IPC) listed the price of Lampung black pepper (Indonesia) at 6,448 USD/ton (down 0.01%); the price of Brazilian black pepper ASTA 570 at 8,500 USD/ton; the price of Kuching black pepper (Malaysia) ASTA remained at 4,900 USD/ton.

Muntok white pepper price is 8,416 USD/ton (down 0.01%); Malaysian ASTA white pepper price remains at 7,300 USD/ton.

The price of Vietnamese black pepper increased sharply across the board, reaching 7,800 USD/ton (up 6.84%); 550 g/l at 8,000 USD/ton (up 2.56%); white pepper at 12,000 USD/ton (up 12.14%).

Shipping rates are one of the main factors pushing up pepper prices. According to businesses in the logistics service sector, the reason for the increase in shipping rates is that the war is affecting shipping rates globally.

On all routes, shipping rates suddenly increased by about 100%, even routes from Vietnam to the US more than doubled compared to March.

Despite the high prices, more worryingly, exporters are finding it difficult to book ships to export their goods.

The US plans to impose heavy tariffs on a wide range of Chinese goods starting in August. In order to avoid being taxed, Chinese exporters and US importers want to boost their imports and exports before the deadline.

To get a place on the ship, Chinese exporters have paid higher prices. China is willing to pay up to 1,000 USD for a "slot" on the ship at the moment, while Vietnam is only willing to pay 600 USD, so it cannot compete.

Coffee, cocoa, seafood, and shipping costs increasing too rapidly according to the pepper export association will cause businesses to suffer losses if they have goods to export.

They worry that this incident will have a domino effect on other trips, although the fares have only increased on a few routes. If freight rates continue to rise, businesses that are already struggling will not be able to bear the loss too much.

Ports in Southeast Asia are becoming the "most serious bottleneck" for global shipping, with 26% of global container capacity stuck in the region, according to shipping market research firm Linerlytica.

* Information for reference only. Prices may vary by location.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/du-bao-gia-tieu-ngay-1662024-noi-tiep-da-giam-326388.html