VPI forecasts that gasoline and diesel prices will continue to rise slightly in the price adjustment period of February 12. Photo: VNA
VPI's Machine Learning-based fuel price forecasting model shows that, in the price adjustment period on February 12, 2026, retail fuel prices could continue to increase slightly by 0.2-3.6% compared to the previous adjustment period, if the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Industry and Trade do not allocate or utilize the Fuel Price Stabilization Fund.
According to Mr. Doan Tien Quyet, a data analyst at VPI, the gasoline price forecasting model, which applies artificial neural network (ANN) and supervised learning algorithms in machine learning, predicts that the retail price of E5 RON 92 gasoline will increase by 100 VND (0.5%) to 18,430 VND/liter and RON 95-III gasoline will increase by 40 VND (0.2%) to 18,880 VND/liter.
VPI's model forecasts that kerosene prices could increase by 220 VND (1.2%) to 18,390 VND/liter this period, diesel prices could increase by 280 VND (1.5%) to 18,450 VND/liter, while fuel oil is projected to increase sharply by 520 VND (3.6%) to 15,150 VND/kg. VPI predicts that the inter-ministerial committee of Finance and Industry and Trade will continue not to allocate or utilize the fuel price stabilization fund this period.
On the world market, at the close of trading on February 9th (US time), the price of North Sea Brent crude oil in London rose 1.5% to $69.04 per barrel; the price of US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) sweet crude oil increased 1.3%, closing at $64.36 per barrel.
World oil prices rose as market sentiment quickly reversed after the US Department of Transportation's Maritime Administration (DOT) noted that ships transiting the area still face the risk of being seized by Iranian forces, with the most recent incident recorded on February 3.
US authorities have advised ships to navigate close to Omani territorial waters when heading east through the Strait of Hormuz. This move has heightened concerns about potential supply disruptions in the region, which carries approximately 20% of global oil consumption. Experts from the consulting firm Ritterbusch and Associates believe that market developments this month will be less dependent on fundamental supply and demand factors and more centered on the "risk premium" associated with Iran.
Besides the Middle East hotspot, investors are closely watching Western efforts to limit Russia's energy revenues. The European Commission (EC) has just proposed a broad ban on services supporting Russian crude oil exports by sea to increase economic pressure.
Notably, refineries in India – Russia's largest oil buyer – are increasingly rejecting orders for delivery in April 2026. Analysts at Sparta Oil Market suggest that if India completely stops importing oil from Russia, this would be a factor supporting the long-term upward trend in oil prices.
Source: https://baotintuc.vn/thi-truong-tien-te/du-bao-gia-xang-dau-tiep-tuc-tang-nhe-trong-ky-dieu-hanh-122-20260210154927096.htm
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