Tourism - the 'dark horse' of economic growth in 2026

Like a dark horse, the tourism industry is a surprising and noteworthy driver in 2025 and is projected to continue its bright prospects, making a significant contribution to growth in 2026.

In January, the tourism industry witnessed the highest number of international visitors to Vietnam in nearly 20 years, reaching almost 2.5 million, an increase of more than 21% compared to December 2025, according to the National Statistics Office.

According to tourism experts, this figure signals good fortune for the industry, indicating a favorable start and the potential to achieve the target of welcoming 25 million visitors for the entire year.

Analysts began paying attention to the tourism "dark horse" last year, when international visitors to Vietnam reached a record high of nearly 21.2 million, a 20.4% increase compared to 2024 and surpassing pre-pandemic levels. Alongside this, the total number of domestic tourists reached approximately 135.5 million.

As a result, total tourism revenue in 2025 is expected to surpass one trillion VND, contributing significantly to the growth of retail sales and consumer services in general, estimated at 9.2%. According to HSBC, Vietnam's tourism recovery has led Southeast Asia.

Mr. Vu Binh Minh, CFA, Head of Capital and Money Markets Business, Capital Markets and Securities Services at HSBC Vietnam, noted that the services sector recorded strong performance thanks to good growth in trade as well as tourism-related industries.

"Transportation and accommodation are also experiencing a continued boom as Vietnam sees a return of tourists," he assessed. In Ho Chi Minh City and Da Nang , 5-star hotel room rates in the fourth quarter increased by 5% compared to the third quarter, reaching $188 and $295 per night respectively, according to Avison Young. The resort market is witnessing the emergence of a segment priced at half a billion dong per night.

The financial health of some major airlines is also an example. In 2025, Vietnam Airlines recorded record financial results, with consolidated revenue exceeding 123,000 billion VND, a 10% increase, and a profit of over 8,400 billion VND. Vietjet achieved Q4 revenue of over 29,000 billion VND, a 47% increase year-on-year, with a cumulative total of 81,000 billion VND for the whole year.

According to Mr. Nguyen Xuan Thanh, Lecturer in Public Policy at Fulbright University Vietnam, the three most notable growth drivers last year were public investment, exports, and tourism. Of these, tourism is a driver that is "less talked about but actually very important." According to this expert, part of the reason for the tourism success last year was the timing of several major national holidays.

According to the National Tourism Administration, tourism is a highly specialized, interdisciplinary, and interregional industry with a strong ripple effect, contributing not only directly to GDP but also promoting the development of many related sectors.

With increased visitor numbers, hotels, restaurants, and food services will benefit. Increased demand for air, road, and water travel will stimulate the transportation and logistics industries. During their trips, visitors' shopping and entertainment activities will boost consumer demand and cultural and artistic events.

Sharad Jain, Country Director for Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos, estimates that foreign tourists will spend approximately US$5 to US$6 billion in Vietnam by 2025. This figure includes the entire market with various payment methods, including cash.

"Mastercard's system alone recorded significant growth, with the number of transactions increasing by over 20% and transaction volume increasing by over 15%," he said.

According to the "Macroeconomics 2026" report by the Ho Chi Minh City University of Banking (HUB), the tourism service sector, which had a trade surplus before Covid-19, reversed to a trade deficit after the pandemic. However, thanks to the increasing number of international visitors, the trade deficit in services is trending downwards.

Tourists return to Hoi An ancient town on November 1, 2025. Photo:

Tourism is projected to remain a promising "dark horse" for growth in 2026. Mr. Nguyen Xuan Thanh predicts that tourism will be the most sustainable driver this year, among the three notable drivers that emerged last year.

"The outlook remains very optimistic, especially with the completion of the North-South expressway, which will be a huge boost for the tourism industry. Through research on the impact of the expressway system, we have found that the spillover effect on tourism is even stronger than that on industry," Mr. Thanh said.

Avison Young agrees, stating that improved transport infrastructure, particularly airports and highways, will open up opportunities for new destinations beyond traditional markets. Areas with good connectivity but still largely untapped potential are expected to become the next growth drivers for the resort industry.

According to Mr. Sharad Jain, tourism currently contributes around 7% to Vietnam's GDP. However, with continued investment in infrastructure and promotional activities, this figure is expected to increase to 12%. The government currently aims for the tourism sector to contribute 13-14% of GDP by 2030.

In terms of trends, international visitors to Vietnam are increasingly focusing on service quality, experience, and emotional value, according to Avison Young. Growth is likely to be more concentrated in the mid-to-high-end and luxury segments.

Regarding policy, the National Tourism Administration stated that it will focus on improving the institutional framework, proposing amendments to the 2017 Tourism Law, advising the Government on issuing policies to remove obstacles for service businesses, and coordinating with localities to plan tourism products based on the strengths of each region.

Source: https://bvhttdl.gov.vn/du-lich-chu-ngua-o-cua-tang-truong-kinh-te-2026-20260217090948639.htm