Cocoa prices have risen sharply for the fifth consecutive session.

The trading session on May 4th showed that global commodity markets continued to be dominated by geopolitical factors, with escalating tensions in the Middle East at the center. This caused significant volatility in the energy sector with each news release, while many industrial raw materials, especially cocoa, surged considerably amid concerns about supply shortages.

At the close of trading, buying pressure prevailed across the board, pushing the MXV-Index up nearly 1% to 2,957 points, reflecting the positive yet cautious sentiment of investors.

The Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV) believes that the cocoa market continues to be the focus of the industrial raw materials group, recording its fifth consecutive day of gains, supported by both supply and demand factors and geopolitical influences.

The continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is creating ripple effects on global supply chains, particularly energy and logistics costs. For key cocoa-producing countries in West Africa such as Ivory Coast and Ghana, sharply rising input costs, especially fertilizers and transportation, have increased pressure on production.

*Cocoa prices have risen nearly 8%, bringing the total increase over the last five sessions to 17.8%, currently trading around $3,883 per ton. (Illustrative image)*

In this context, farmers are forced to reduce their cultivated area or raise prices to maintain profitability, thereby increasing the risk of supply shortages in the next crop year.

Weather conditions continue to exacerbate the situation. In Ivory Coast, the world's largest cocoa producer, production for the 2025-2026 season is projected to fall to around 1.65 million tonnes, 10.8% lower than the previous season due to widespread drought. In Ghana, the production outlook is also bleak, with drought covering about two-thirds of the area, threatening a significant drop in yields. Furthermore, fertilizer shortages and the increasing likelihood of El Niño are expected to further limit production for the 2026/27 season.

*Cocoa futures prices for July. Source: MXV*

Amid concerns about supply, July cocoa futures prices rose nearly 8% in the session, bringing the total gain over the last five sessions to 17.8%, currently trading around $3,883 per ton, after touching $3,940 per ton during the session - the highest since mid-February.

Many analysts predict Ecuador's cocoa production this year will reach 650,000 tons, but the actual output may be lower than forecast, around 590,000-600,000 tons. However, demand is showing signs of improvement in the second half of the year.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/gia-ca-cao-tang-manh-5-phien-lien-tiep-455165.html