On the London exchange, with the exception of the January 2026 contract, robusta coffee prices for other maturities increased. Specifically, the January 2026 robusta contract fell slightly by $5/ton to $4,190/ton, while the March 2026 contract rose by $16/ton (+0.4%) to $4,016/ton, and the May 2026 contract increased by $10/ton to $3,935/ton. Prices for other maturities increased by $5-8/ton.
On the New York exchange, the price of Arabica coffee for March 2026 delivery fell 2.8 US cents/pound (-0.77%) to 355.3 US cents/pound, while the price for May 2026 delivery fell 2.9 US cents/pound (-0.84%) to 337.5 US cents/pound. Prices for other contract periods also decreased by 2.75-2.85 US cents/pound.
Last Thursday, arabica prices rose to their highest level in a month due to below-average rainfall in Brazil – the world's largest arabica producer. According to Somar Meteorologia, Minas Gerais, Brazil's largest arabica-growing region, recorded only 26.5 mm of rain in the week ending January 9th, equivalent to 29% of the historical average.
In other news, optimistic signals regarding the 2026-2027 Brazilian coffee crop could lead to continued price volatility in 2026, according to Cepea.
According to Cepea's latest two-week report, coffee prices in Brazil, as well as on the international market, are projected to continue to fluctuate significantly in 2026. With the new year starting with low inventory levels, and despite the harvesting progressing well in Vietnam, limited global supply is likely to keep prices high, similar to the trend seen in much of the second half of 2025.
Despite signs of weakening demand in both the Brazilian domestic market and major consumer markets, tight supply could continue to support prices until a clearer picture emerges regarding the outcome of the final third of the Brazilian coffee crop.
In Brazil, the 2026-2027 coffee crop has so far developed under more favorable weather conditions than in previous years, although regional issues remain. In Cerrado Mineiro and the Mogiana region, consistent rainfall is only expected to return around October-November, which could delay the planting schedule.
However, milder temperatures have helped improve coffee plant growth, reinforcing hopes of a recovery after about five consecutive seasons of negative weather impacts.
Furthermore, the 2026-2027 crop year falls within a "biennial positive cycle," thereby increasing optimism among coffee growers. Initial estimates suggest production could exceed 70 million 60kg bags, reflecting a recovery in arabica coffee along with favorable results for robusta. More reliable forecasts are expected to be released at the end of the first quarter of 2026.
For robusta coffee, the 2026-2027 crop year is projected to see a slight decrease compared to the previous year, due to less favorable early-season weather conditions in Espírito Santo state and the need for coffee plants to recover after a bumper crop. However, the overall outlook for the state remains positive.
Brazil's coffee exports for the 2025-2026 crop year are projected to decline due to lower supply. In the first five months of the crop year, total exports reached 17.435 million bags, down 21.7% from the July-November 2024 period. However, export value increased by 11.6%, reaching $6.723 billion, reflecting higher prices in the international market as well as the impact of US tariffs imposed from August to part of November.
Source: https://baoninhbinh.org.vn/gia-ca-phe-hom-nay-201-dien-bien-trai-chieu-บน-2-san-260120055747124.html
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