Robusta coffee prices slightly decrease, rare poor trading, Brazil boosts exports

Robusta coffee supplies are being replenished, as Indonesia's robusta bean exports in May reached 13,618 tonnes, up 13.03% year-on-year and 87.22% higher than April, according to local Trade Office data.

World coffee prices have just experienced a rare poor trading day, with the New York floor closed for the US Independence Day, but the London floor was also quiet with extremely low trading volume due to the lack of interaction of Arabica coffee. Most investors are said to be standing outside the market waiting, listening to more news…

The fall in the real has helped Brazilians boost coffee exports in the short term. However, the El Nino weather phenomenon is expected to intensify in the last quarter of this year, bringing drought to major coffee-producing countries around the world, reducing crop output due to an average temperature increase of 0.5 degrees Celsius and increasing coffee production costs.

ICE London-certified inventories fell 50 tonnes, or 0.05%, to 73,900 tonnes as of July 3. The news helped support robusta coffee prices.

The limited supply of qualified Arabica coffee in the ICE stockpile is supporting the price to regain its upward momentum. The ICE stockpile of qualified Arabica coffee as of June 30 was 544,915 60kg bags, down slightly by 1,735 bags compared to the previous week. There are currently 3,989 bags awaiting grading for possible addition to the storage in the coming time.

Domestic coffee prices today, July 5, decreased by 200 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities.

ICE London-certified inventories fell 50 tonnes, or 0.05%, to 73,900 tonnes as of July 3. The news helped support robusta coffee prices.

At the end of the trading session on July 4, the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange decreased slightly. The price of robusta coffee futures for September 2023 delivery decreased by 11 USD, trading at 2,527 USD/ton. The price of November delivery decreased by 6 USD, trading at 2,431 USD/ton. Trading volume was low.

The New York Stock Exchange is closed for Independence Day and closed all day on July 4, so prices remain unchanged. The price of Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US New York for September 2023 delivery increased by 1.5 cents, trading at 160.50 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the December 2023 delivery increased by 1.6 cents, trading at 159.7 cents/lb. Trading volume is high on average.

Domestic coffee prices today, July 5, decreased by 200 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities.

Average price	Change
USD/VND exchange rate	23,490	+ 40
DAK LAK	65,100	- 200
LAM DONG	64,700	- 200
GIA LAI	64,900	- 200
DAK NONG	65,300	- 200

Unit: VND/kg.

(Source: Giacaphe.com)

The minutes of the US Federal Reserve's June policy meeting will be released today, in the context of the US economy continuing to decline and inflation slowing somewhat, it will take a long time to reach the target level of 2%, according to Fed officials.

According to technical analysis, technical indicators on the robusta floor are showing signs of continued downward momentum. It is expected that in the short term, robusta prices will fluctuate and accumulate within the range of 2500 - 2570.

Robusta coffee prices need to rebound above 2570 to find an opportunity to rise back to the psychological resistance level of 2600. On the contrary, it is necessary to pay attention to the price range of 2495 - 2500, if it falls below this range, robusta coffee can establish a downtrend.

For the Arabica floor, after the trading break, RSI is approaching the oversold zone and is at 30.06%. Technical indicators all show that the downward momentum is still there. It is expected that in the short term, the price may continue to decrease to probe the support zone of 155 - 157. However, it is not excluded that there will soon be a technical recovery correction because the price has approached the oversold zone very close.

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