According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), the global coffee market continued its downward trend for the third consecutive session as Brazil entered the harvest season for the 2026-2027 crop year. MXV noted that market attention is shifting from the supply shortage story to the prospects of the new crop in the world's largest coffee-producing nation.
The market is currently expecting Brazil to have a large harvest with production ranging from 66 to 80 million bags. Taking the average of around 73.8 million bags and assuming domestic consumption remains around 22 million bags, Brazil's coffee exports in the next crop year could reach approximately 51.5 million bags, significantly higher than the 38-39 million bags of the current crop year.
Expectations of abundant supply continue to put pressure on world coffee prices in recent sessions. However, harvesting in Brazil remains relatively slow due to a high percentage of unripe fruit in many growing regions and uneven ripening. This means that actual supply pressure is not expected in the short term.
Forecast of Brazilian coffee production. Source: MXV
According to the latest report from consulting firm Safras & Mercado, forward sales for the 2026-2027 crop year have only reached about 16% of the projected yield, significantly lower than the 5-year average of 25%. Meanwhile, sales for the previous 2025-2026 crop year have reached approximately 86% of the total harvest. This trend indicates that sellers remain cautious in the face of market fluctuations.
However, the decline in coffee prices is somewhat limited by the continued low levels of certified Arabica coffee inventories at the ICE exchange. Currently, inventories are only around 462,800 bags, significantly lower than in recent years.
In the current inventory structure, coffee originating from Brazil accounts for only about 3.2%, significantly lower than the more than 57% recorded during the same period last year. This continues to be a supporting factor for the market and limits a sharp decline in coffee prices amidst increasing pressure from new supply.
Brazilian coffee producers had sold 86% of their 2025/26 crop by mid-April 2026, down from 96% at the same time last year.
In the first half of May 2026, Brazil's 2026/27 coffee harvest was progressing slowly, with many plantations still having a high percentage of green beans and uneven ripeness. According to the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (Cepea), the average harvest progress currently stands at only about 3-5% of the total production in key producing regions. Despite the early stages of harvesting, the prospect of a large crop in Brazil has put downward pressure on Arabica coffee prices throughout the past week.
The global coffee market continued its downward trend for a third consecutive session as Brazil entered the harvesting phase of its new 2026-2027 crop year.
According to data released by the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Association (Cecafé), Brazil's exports of all types of coffee in April 2026 reached 3.12 million bags, a slight increase of 0.6% compared to the same period last year. However, the trend for green coffee beans remained negative, with exports decreasing by 1.3% to 2.76 million bags. Conversely, Robusta volumes recovered strongly, reaching 497,019 bags – nearly five times the volume in April 2025. Meanwhile, exports of processed coffee reached a record high of 364,389 bags, an increase of 17.1% compared to the same period, mainly instant coffee. Overall, Brazil's exports of all types of coffee in the first four months of 2026 remained significantly lower than the same period in 2025, totaling over 11.6 million bags, a decrease of 16.1%.
In response to the above factors, the coffee futures market continued to weaken. At the close of trading, the price of Arabica coffee for July delivery fell 1%, to $5,824 per ton. Similarly, the price of Robusta coffee for July delivery fell 1.75%, to $3,306 per ton.
In the domestic market, coffee prices in the Central Highlands yesterday fell slightly to 87,100 VND/kg, about 700 VND/kg lower than the previous session. Trading activity increased as some farmers took advantage of the opportunity to sell their produce due to concerns that world prices might continue to adjust in the near future.
Source: https://congthuong.vn/gia-ca-phe-the-gioi-tiep-tiep-giam-457279.html
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