| Coffee export prices fell for the third consecutive session. Coffee export prices fluctuated, Robusta increased for the first time in 2024. |
At the end of the first trading week of 2024 (January 2-7), red dominated the price list of industrial raw materials. In particular, coffee prices decreased by 2.92% for Arabica in the March contract, to the lowest level in the past month, and 1.62% for Robusta in the same term. Positive signs of Arabica supply, especially in Brazil, have put pressure on prices. However, concerns about Vietnam's sales restrictions have restrained Robusta's decline.
 |
| Arabica coffee prices hit one-month low |
Coffee exports from leading Arabica-producing countries were vibrant in the final month of 2023, overcoming concerns about supply shortages that had existed in the market before. The Brazilian government said that in December 2023, the country exported 4.06 million bags of coffee beans, up 33% compared to the same period in 2022. Previously, the Honduran Coffee Institute (IHCAFE) also reported that the world's fourth largest Arabica producer exported over 254,900 60kg bags of coffee in December, up 30% compared to the same period last year.
Concerns about Brazil’s 2024/25 coffee supply outlook due to heatwave conditions have also been eased. Rains returning to major coffee growing regions and milder temperatures have created more favorable conditions for coffee trees to recover from the heatwave and grow best during the fruit-size growth phase. This could help the market maintain positive expectations for the next crop in the world’s largest exporter.
In contrast, the Robusta market remains concerned about its ability to meet sufficient supply as dealers warn that Vietnamese farmers are limiting coffee sales in anticipation of better prices.
According to observers, Robusta coffee in Southeast Asia is currently very difficult to buy because farmers are expecting higher prices, forcing traders to raise the differential price (DIF) quite high compared to futures prices in London.
 |
| Coffee exports continue to benefit from supply concerns |
In addition, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development of Vietnam also forecasts that coffee output in the current crop year 2023/2024 may decrease by 10% to 1.656 million tons, the lowest crop in 4 years, due to unfavorable weather. Similarly, the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa) also forecasts that Vietnam's coffee output in the 2023/2024 crop year will decrease to 1.6 - 1.7 million tons.
According to the Vietnam Industry and Trade Information Center (VITIC), major coffee markets in Asia have slowed down amid low demand for Vietnam's Robusta coffee this week.
Vietnam's coffee exports in 2023 are estimated to decrease by 9.6% compared to 2022, down to 1.6 million tons, but export revenue increased by 3.1% to 4.2 billion USD.
In the report on the socio-economic situation in the first 12 months of 2023, the General Statistics Office estimated that coffee exports in December reached about 190 thousand tons, down 3.5% over the same period last year, bringing coffee exports for the whole year of 2023 to an estimated 1.606 million tons, down nearly 10% compared to 2022.
In the domestic market, this morning (January 8), the price of green coffee beans in the Central Highlands and the Southern provinces also increased by 400 VND/kg. Accordingly, domestic coffee is currently purchased at around 67,700 - 68,600 VND/kg.
The latest report of the International Coffee Organization (ICO) said that global coffee output in the 2023/2024 crop year is forecast to increase by 5.8% compared to the 2022/2023 crop year, to 178 million bags (60 kg/bag), of which Arabica output increases by 8.7% to 102.2 million bags and Robusta increases by 2.2% to 75.8 million bags.
Source link
Comment (0)