Foreign exchange prices on September 30, 2024: Factors causing the USD to weaken

DNVN - The USD is facing downward pressure, largely due to fluctuations in the global macroeconomic context, especially from the interest rate policy of the US Federal Reserve (Fed).

On September 30, 2024, the central exchange rate of Vietnamese Dong (VND) against the US Dollar (USD) was listed by the State Bank of Vietnam at 24,118 VND, unchanged from the previous trading session on September 29.

USD exchange rate on international market

The Dollar Index (DXY), an index measuring the strength of the USD against 6 major currencies (EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, SEK, CHF), is currently at 100.43 points, up slightly by 0.01 points compared to the trading session on September 29, 2024.

The DXY index has been trading in a narrow range for the past week, between 100.16 and 101.23. The short-term outlook for the index remains unclear. However, the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) data late last week has had a negative impact on the USD. At the same time, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note has also fallen, reflecting the impact of the PCE data.

There are two important data points to watch this week. The first is the manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which will be released on October 1. The index came in at 47.2 in August, and if the September PMI is lower, that could add to concerns about an economic slowdown, putting pressure on the dollar.

Next, labor market data will be released on October 4. If the unemployment rate rises from 4.2% in August, the negative outlook for the USD will become increasingly evident.

Currently, the DXY index is holding above the psychological level of 100. As long as the index does not fall below this level, it is likely to continue to fluctuate in a narrow range of 100-101, or a wider range of 100-102. If there is a break of this range, the next direction of the DXY index will be clearly determined.

If the DXY index falls below 100, the downtrend will become more evident, with the index likely to fall to 98. Conversely, if the index breaks above 102, the downward pressure will be relieved and the DXY could rise to 104.

Domestic USD exchange rate

The central VND/USD exchange rate announced by the State Bank today is 24,118 VND/USD, unchanged from the trading session on September 29.

At commercial banks, the allowed exchange rate fluctuates between 23,400 and 25,450 VND/USD. The domestic USD exchange rate also recorded stability this morning. At Vietcombank , the buying rate is 24,390 VND/USD and the selling rate is 24,760 VND/USD, unchanged from September 29. The domestic USD buying and selling price currently fluctuates between 24,000 and 25,500 VND/USD.

Meanwhile, the EUR exchange rate at the State Bank of Vietnam recorded a slight increase, currently at 25,601 VND for buying and 28,296 VND for selling. The Japanese Yen exchange rate decreased slightly, with 158 VND for buying and 174 VND for selling.

Hung Le (t/h)

Source: https://doanhnghiepvn.vn/kinh-te/gia-ngoai-te-ngay-30-9-2024-nhung-yeu-to-khien-dong-usd-suy-yeu/20240930082636801