At the end of the trading session on September 17, the domestic price of SJC 9999 gold bars was listed by SJC and Doji Gold and Gemstone Group in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City at VND80-82 million/tael (buy - sell), an increase of VND1.5 million/tael compared to the previous session.

Domestic gold ring prices remain at a record high, around VND77.9 million/tael (buy) and VND79.2 million/tael (sell).

SJC listed the price of gold rings of type 1-5 at only 77.9-79.2 million VND/tael (buy - sell). Doji listed the price of 9999 smooth round gold rings at 78-79.2 million VND/tael (buy - sell).

As of 8:00 p.m. on September 17 (Vietnam time), the spot gold price today on the world market was at 2,577 USD/ounce. Gold for December 2024 delivery on the Comex New York floor was at 2,599 USD/ounce.

Thus, compared to the historical peak of 2,585 USD/ounce recorded in the morning, the spot gold price has decreased slightly.

The world gold price on the night of September 17 was about 24.9% higher (514 USD/ounce) than at the beginning of 2024. The world gold price converted to the bank USD price was 77.7 million VND/tael, including taxes and fees, about 4.3 million VND/tael lower than the domestic gold price as of the end of the afternoon session on September 17.

Gold prices in the international market fell mainly due to profit-taking pressure after gold continuously set record highs in recent sessions. Investors' caution at the time when the US Federal Reserve (Fed) entered a very important meeting in recent years.

The Fed begins a two-day meeting, from September 17 New York time (September 17 evening Vietnam time).

According to signals from the Fed and the market, in this meeting, the US Central Bank will cut the operating interest rate for the first time since March 2020. Previously, the Fed had raised interest rates 11 times, from March 2022 to September 2023, bringing interest rates from a record low of 0-0.25%/year to the current 5.25-5.5%.

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Gold prices are still expected to increase in the international market. Photo: KC

The Fed raised interest rates to curb inflation, which peaked at a historic 9.1% in June 2022. Maintaining very high interest rates over the past two years has caused many difficulties for Americans, and the economy has recently shown many negative signs, affecting the labor market. Many experts fear that the US economy will fall into recession.

Over the past month or so, Fed officials have sent out multiple signals that the bank will cut interest rates.

The clearest signal came on August 23 when Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said in a speech that “it is time to adjust monetary policy,” as inflation in the US has dropped significantly and the labor market has cooled back to normal levels. Mr. Powell said the Fed “will do whatever it takes” to support a strong labor market.

This statement was immediately interpreted as meaning that the Fed will begin the process of cutting interest rates from the September meeting.

On September 6, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that “it is time to act” and is ready for more interest rate cuts.

For investors, the Fed’s September rate cut is a certainty, no question. The only question is whether the Fed will cut rates by 0.25 percentage points or 0.5 percentage points.

Gold Price Forecast

Before September 13, the market reflected a 60-70% chance that the Fed would cut interest rates by 0.25%, but in recent days, the odds of betting on a 0.5 percentage point cut have skyrocketed, reaching 67% by late afternoon on September 17, with only 33% betting on a 0.25 percentage point cut.

Along with the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates sharply, the USD also fell sharply. The DXY index (measuring the USD's fluctuations against a basket of 6 major currencies) fell to 100.6 points on the afternoon of September 17, compared to 101.8 points on September 12, 103 points in mid-August and 106.25 points at the end of April. However, the DXY index is rising again to 100.8 points on the evening of September 17.

Investors seem to be cautious about the Fed's decision on how much to cut after the meeting on September 18 (early morning of September 19, Vietnam time). If the Fed only cuts by 0.25 percentage points, it will cause widespread disappointment. The USD may rise again, thereby pushing gold prices down.

In addition to how much the Fed will cut, investors are also waiting for Mr. Powell's speech after the meeting. Policy signals will determine the direction of the USD, and thereby directly affect gold.

Recently, there have been many predictions that gold will reach $2,700/ounce in 2025. Experts from Societe Generale predict that gold will reach an average of $2,800/ounce in 2025.

Gold price hits new peak, gold rings surpass 79 million VND: Is there a risk of a strong pullback? World gold prices skyrocketed, surpassing the old peak at the end of August, then continuously setting new high records, at times reaching over 2,570 USD/ounce. Is the strong increase, contrary to previous expectations of a decrease, a potential correction?