Gold price today January 9, 2024: SJC gold increases again
Waiting for SJC gold to continue to decrease
The world gold price is currently at 2,030-2,050 USD/ounce (equivalent to 60-61 million VND/tael) and is still lower than the price of SJC gold bars in the Vietnamese market by about 13-14 million VND/tael.
This is a large difference in the context of limited supply of exclusive SJC brand gold bars, while the demand for investment and storage of national brand gold bars is still quite high, especially when other investment channels are less attractive and the world is in an unstable and unpredictable state.
Following the Government ’s directives on promoting gold market management and recent signals from the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), the price of SJC gold bars may decrease further in the coming time. SBV may import gold, auction it, and be ready to increase supply for the domestic market.
It is likely that the difference between the SJC gold price and the converted world gold price will narrow. The difference between the buying and selling price at gold shops will not be as high as the current level of VND3 million/tael. The price of SJC gold bars sold by shops will likely be around VND65 million/tael.
Many investors and people consider the current price of gold expensive and are waiting for the price to return to a more reasonable level to buy for investment and/or storage purposes.
Compared to the price at the historical peak, gold trading has also decreased. On the major gold trading streets in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, it is no longer as bustling as the consecutive gold breakout sessions, from the threshold of 73.6 million VND/tael in mid-December 2023 to the peak of 80.3 million VND/tael on December 26.
The price of SJC gold (sold) tends to decrease but is still at the threshold of 74-75 million VND/tael. In the session of January 8, the price of SJC gold bars decreased by 1 million VND/tael to 74 million VND. Domestic gold prices decreased when demand weakened and world gold prices on January 8 decreased by 20 USD, reaching the threshold of 2,030 USD/ounce.
Mr. Le Quang Tri - Director of Brokerage at Nhat Viet Securities Joint Stock Company said that domestic gold prices will follow world gold prices more closely in the coming time, especially when authorities introduce measures to stabilize the market.
However, according to Mr. Tri, many people still believe in gold in the long term and can buy when gold gradually decreases following the intervention measures of the State Bank.
Some people holding money said they still plan to buy gold every time the price of SJC gold drops sharply, with the forecast that world gold prices will increase in the long term, even though there is immediate pressure on precious metals on the international market after a strong increase at the end of 2023.
According to Mr. Nguyen Duc Nhan, Director of KB Securities Trading Center, there are not many investment channels in Vietnam, mainly real estate, stocks, USD and gold. Real estate is frozen locally, many people have suffered losses in stocks in the past 2 years and have not dared to return, while foreign currency trading is banned and USD has been relatively stable recently.
Therefore, recently, many people have chosen gold as an investment channel despite the large price difference compared to the world.
According to expert Nguyen Duc Nhan, in an unstable world, gold is always the preferred metal to hold, and so is Vietnam.
Mr. Nhan believes that the recent moves of the management agency are just policy orientations. As long as Decree 24 has not been amended appropriately and the State Bank of Vietnam has taken specific actions, gold will not cool down to the desired level, with a low difference with the world price. Moreover, we must also take into account the loss of foreign exchange reserves when importing gold. Most gold buyers believe that gold will continue to increase in 2024.
World gold under short-term downward pressure
In the world, in the first week of the new year 2024, gold prices tend to decrease. As of the end of the afternoon of January 8 (Vietnam time), the world spot gold price fell to 2,026 USD/ounce (equivalent to 60.5 million VND/tael, including fees and taxes).
According to Mr. Le Quang Tri, in the short term, the world gold price may continue to decrease slightly and fluctuate around the threshold of 2,000 USD/ounce (equivalent to 59.7 million VND/tael) when investors are waiting for signals from the US. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) may not reverse to lower interest rates at its meeting next March as expected by the market.
On Kitco, according to TD Securities, after the positive US jobs report released at the beginning of the year, this organization believes that the Fed may push back the interest rate cut to the second quarter of 2024. TD Securities made this assessment even though market signals are showing that there is a nearly 63% chance that the Fed will still cut interest rates from the current 5.25-5.5%/year to 5-5.25% in March.
Many experts believe that gold is under profit-taking pressure. Kitco expert Jim Wyckoff predicts that gold will move sideways this week (January 8-12) as the USD recovers and US government bond yields increased last week.
But Philip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures, said expectations for a rate cut in March by the Fed remain high because there are “cracks” in the US labor market.
And if the Fed cuts interest rates in March, gold prices will remain stable at $2,000 an ounce. Gold prices could even reach $2,050 an ounce.
James Stanley, senior market strategist at Forex, also assessed that world gold will be around 2,050 USD/ounce in the near future.
A Kitco News survey of retail investors found that 50% believe gold prices will rise in the second week of 2024, from January 8-12.
Walsh Trading is bullish on gold as the precious metal is supported by the Middle East conflict, betting that gold could break out to $2,175 an ounce by mid-February.
In the long term, gold is supported by a rapidly weakening US dollar. The Fed is expected to start a series of interest rate cuts starting this year.
Canada's BCA Research has just forecast that the price of gold will reach 2,200 USD/ounce (65.7 million VND/tael) in 2024 because gold is still an important hedging channel against inflation and risks in the financial market.
Investors are now waiting for US inflation data for December. If inflation continues to decline, the Fed is likely to cut interest rates soon, thereby pushing gold prices up.
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