The trading week of January 19-23 saw a sudden surge in world gold prices, closing the week at $4,985 per ounce on the Comex exchange in New York. This is a new record high, just a short distance from the $5,000 per ounce mark. Since the beginning of the year, gold prices have increased by more than 15% compared to the closing price in 2025, surpassing key milestones such as $4,700, $4,800, and $4,900.

This acceleration occurred despite some positive signals from the political scene, such as US President Donald Trump's announcement of an agreement with NATO regarding Greenland, which could ease tensions and support the US dollar.

Domestically, the price of SJC gold bars and gold rings is heading towards 175 million VND per tael.

Equally dynamic, world silver prices surpassed the $100/ounce mark for the first time in history, closing the week at $103.08/ounce, a 7.3% increase in the final trading session alone. Domestically, the selling price of silver is heading towards 110 million VND/kg.

The factors supporting gold and silver prices mainly stem from the demand for safe-haven assets amid global uncertainty. Geopolitical conflicts are emerging everywhere. In addition, there is escalating public debt, currency devaluation, and potential inflation. The US dollar has recently resumed a downward trend that is expected to continue throughout 2025.

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Domestic gold prices continue to climb to new historical highs.

With the current upward trend, major institutions are raising their gold price forecasts for 2026. Bank of America (BofA) has just released the most surprising forecast: gold prices could reach $6,000 per ounce by spring 2026, 20% higher than the current record high.

Based on historical data from the previous four bull cycles, with an average increase of 300% over 43 months, BofA analyst Michael Hartnett made this forecast. Michael Widmer, head of metals research, emphasized that gold remains a key asset in investment portfolios, thanks to reduced supply (North American gold production fell 2% to 19.2 million ounces) and mining costs increased 3% to $1,600 per ounce.

BofA projected an average gold price of $4,538 per ounce in 2026 ( which has already become a reality - PV ), with mining industry profits increasing by 41% to $65 billion.

Goldman Sachs also raised its forecast to $5,400 per ounce, expecting the private sector to participate in diversifying reserves like central banks. Other banks such as JP Morgan and Deutsche Bank are also optimistic. A Kitco News survey showed that 80% of Wall Street experts predict gold will surpass $5,000 next week, while 71% of retail investors agree.

Factors supporting a continued rise in gold prices include increased investment demand (only a 14% increase is needed to reach $6,000, or a 55% increase to reach $8,000), strong central bank gold purchases (currently accounting for 15% of reserves, potentially rising to 30%), and the Fed's loose monetary policy (gold prices have risen an average of 13% during interest rate cuts when inflation is above 2%). Additionally, geopolitical tensions remain a significant risk.

Gold accounts for 4% of the global financial market, but only 0.5% in the portfolios of high-net-worth investors, indicating significant potential for reallocation.

Regarding the silver market, the upward trend is even hotter than gold, with a 36% increase from the beginning of the year and a 150% increase by 2025. The gold/silver ratio at 48 suggests that silver still has room for further price increases compared to some past points. Silver could reach $135 (based on the low ratio of 32 in 2011) or even $309 (the ratio of 14 in 1980).

Silver is attractive to venture investors due to high industrial demand, but it also carries higher risks than gold due to its large volatility and uneven liquidity. Ole Hansen from Saxo Bank highlights central bank demand for gold and concerns about government debt supporting both gold and silver, although the current rally is partly driven by FOMO (fear of missing out).

However, technical indicators suggest the market is overbought, which could lead to a short-term correction, but the solid fundamentals will sustain the uptrend.

In reality, no asset class experiences continuous price increases without undergoing corrections. Gold and silver are no exception to this rule. In the past, the market has repeatedly witnessed sharp declines after periods of rapid growth, posing significant risks to investors who bought at high prices.

Domestically, gold and silver prices also fluctuated sharply. At the end of 2012, the price of gold dropped by 3 million VND/ounce in a few hours in the afternoon, equivalent to a decrease of 6-7%. At the end of 2025, at one point, the price of gold also dropped by about 7 million VND in a few days, from 160 million VND/ounce to 152.8 million VND/ounce.

For silver, the risk is even greater when the domestic buy-sell spread is higher than that of gold, and domestic prices are significantly higher than world prices. The current world silver price, converted to Vietnamese currency, is approximately 92.1 million VND/kg, about 14.7 million VND/kg lower than the domestic price.

These figures indicate a very high risk.

Therefore, 2026 could continue to be the year of gold and silver, but the risks from large price discrepancies and sharp corrections when prices rise too quickly are factors that cannot be ignored.

A turbulent week: Gold prices surge by 12 million VND, silver market in turmoil. Gold prices soared by more than 10 million VND/ounce this week and continued to rise in the morning session of January 24th after a heated surge in the US market last night. Gold forecasts are constantly being raised, while silver is causing many to fear getting "burned."

Source: https://vietnamnet.vn/gia-vang-tang-chong-mat-du-bao-bat-ngo-moi-cho-nam-2026-2484763.html