Professor Carl Thayer: Vietnam is shaping its role as a middle power.

According to Professor Carl Thayer, the 14th Party Congress is a significant milestone that helps Vietnam strengthen its strategic autonomy and gradually assert its role as a rising middle power in the region.

In an interview with Tri Thuc - Znews , Professor Carl Thayer of the Australian Defence Academy stated that the 14th National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam is of particular importance as it opens up opportunities for an orderly generational transfer of high-level leadership while also creating conditions to promote new talents, building on the achievements of the unprecedented streamlining of the political apparatus.

"The goal is to take the Vietnamese economy to a higher level of development and achieve higher productivity," Mr. Thayer emphasized.

An ambitious agenda

Professor Carl Thayer, the 14th National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam is about to take place, coinciding with the 40th anniversary of the country's reform process. How do you assess the timing and importance of the 14th Party Congress?

Professor Carl Thayer: The 14th National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam is of great significance to Vietnam for many reasons. The international geopolitical system is facing numerous challenges, including the war in Ukraine; armed conflicts in the Middle East ; threats to national sovereignty in Latin America , Europe, and the Indo-Pacific region; as well as trade wars that have disrupted the global economy.

Professor Carl Thayer, Australian Defence Academy. Photo: VNA.

The current geopolitical landscape presents both challenges and opportunities for Vietnam.

The timing of the 14th National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam is of great significance for the country. It presents an opportunity for an orderly transition of senior leadership while fostering new talents and building upon the achievements of the unprecedented streamlining of the political apparatus. The goal is to elevate Vietnam's economy to a higher level and achieve greater productivity.

Restructuring the economy to escape the middle-income trap.

-The draft document for the Party Congress has clearly outlined the main issues, encompassing many aspects such as GDP growth, establishing a new growth model, and economic restructuring... How do you assess these contents?

Professor Carl Thayer: The Communist Party of Vietnam has set forth an ambitious agenda based on a series of closely related resolutions, including science, technology, innovation and national digital transformation; international integration in the new context; lawmaking and enforcement; private sector development; ensuring national energy security; breakthroughs in education and training; and breakthrough solutions to strengthen and protect people's healthcare.

The appendix to the Political Report contains a 200-page Action Plan outlining 12 key tasks, six of which are emphasized as priority tasks: reforming and developing key political and legal foundations; Party building; socialist market economy; science, technology, innovation and digital transformation; sustainable human resource, cultural and social development; and strengthening national defense, security and foreign relations.

This is the time for Vietnam's rise in the new era.

Professor Carl Thayer

The action program also calls for three strategic breakthroughs: modernizing the legal system to support digital transformation and new economic models; training high-quality human resources to support innovation; and developing modern and well-integrated infrastructure; along with “four transformations” (digital, green, energy, and human resources) and “two shifts” (circular economy and green economy).

With these points in mind, "Vietnam's rise in the new era" can certainly be considered as Doi Moi 2.0 (Renovation 2.0), because the export-oriented economic growth model based on foreign investment is no longer suitable if Vietnam wants to avoid the middle-income trap.

Ho Chi Minh City has approved VinSpeed's plan to develop the Ben Thanh - Can Gio railway project worth over 102,000 billion VND. Photo: Quynh Danh.

- For the first time, the draft Political Report of the 14th Party Congress emphasizes the need to "achieve breakthrough development" instead of simply "develop" or "build" as in previous Party resolutions on the defense and security industry. How do you assess this new approach, especially in the current global context?

Professor Carl Thayer: Vietnam has pursued a policy of diversifying and multilateralizing its foreign relations for decades. Most recently, Vietnam has expanded the number of comprehensive strategic partnerships to 14 partners. All are developed economies. Vietnam has also expanded the number of comprehensive strategic partnerships.

In the field of defense and security, dual-use technologies—technologies with applications in both civilian and military sectors—are being driven by artificial intelligence (AI), big data, and quantum computing. All are products of the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

In the new era, Vietnam can leverage comprehensive strategic partnerships for mutual benefit in the defense and security industry. This will include research and development exchanges, as well as joint production and maintenance, overhaul, and repair.

"Vietnam is emerging as a middle power."

-What advantages and challenges does Vietnam face in pursuing these goals, sir?

Professor Carl Thayer: The Lowy Institute's Asia Power Index 2025 provides a comparative analysis of overall national power. Vietnam ranks 12th out of 27 countries in the Asia-Pacific region. Notably, the Lowy Institute assesses that in 2025, Vietnam has made the greatest progress in economic relations (+3.1 points). In other areas, Vietnam has improved in military capabilities (+1.6), cultural influence (+1.6), defense network (+1.3), diplomatic influence (+0.9), and resilience (+0.7).

The advantage is that by becoming a "middle power," Vietnam will enhance its strategic autonomy and international prestige, while playing an increasingly important role in regional security in the Indo-Pacific as well as global affairs.

Facing the current geopolitical uncertainty, Vietnam also possesses many strengths, including its population, geography, natural resources, culture, and political landscape. Vietnam has a large and well-educated young population. It also has abundant natural resources such as coal, oil and gas, bauxite, hydropower, and timber.

Strategically, Vietnam lies on major shipping lanes in the South China Sea. Vietnamese culture emphasizes the roles of family, community, and education. Vietnam's system of supporting gifted students has produced a generation of innovators. Vietnam's political system is stable. Vietnamese leaders inherit a legacy of long-term planning based on consensus. Finally, Vietnam has a professional, well-trained, and multilingual diplomatic corps…

The challenge is that, in order to play a constructive role in regional and global affairs, Vietnam will have to dedicate more material and human resources to security and defense. As long as the economy continues to grow, Vietnam will be able to meet this challenge.

Vietnam's overall capabilities continue to be strengthened, with significant increases in military, cultural, defense, diplomatic, and resilience aspects. (Photos: Quynh Danh, Viet Linh)

- In your opinion, at this pivotal moment, how can Vietnam truly become a powerful nation, not only economically, but also in terms of living standards, culture, and influence both regionally and globally?

Professor Carl Thayer: The Vietnamese economy has grown by 6% over the past five years, making it the fastest-growing economy in Southeast Asia. Vietnam's GDP is projected to increase by more than 8% in 2025 and is expected to surpass Thailand 's GDP as early as 2026.

Vietnam's future will depend on sustained economic growth and the transformation of its production methods from labor-intensive to technology-driven. This path forward for Vietnam has been outlined in the Action Plan attached as an Appendix to the Political Report of the 14th National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam.

Vietnam's role as a middle power helps it consolidate strategic autonomy and be more flexible in its relations with major partners.

Professor Carl Thayer

The private sector contributes 51% of Vietnam's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and employs 80% of the workforce. Vietnam's transition to a new economic model would not be possible without a boom in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the fields of science, technology, innovation, and digital transformation. A competitive market will fuel the next generation of innovators.

And to develop new products for export, Vietnam needs to significantly strengthen its human resources in engineering design, support, and artificial intelligence (AI).

Vietnam can enhance its living standards, culture, and regional and global influence by effectively implementing the Action Plan through the successful completion of six key tasks: Reforming and developing key political and legal institutions; Party building; Socialist market economy; Innovation in science, technology, and digitalization; Sustainable human resource, cultural, and social development; and Strengthening national defense, security, and foreign relations.

At the same time, Vietnam must make greater efforts to achieve the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of the United Nations by 2030, as Vietnam aspires to become a developing country with a modern industrial base and high income.

Thank you, sir!

The 14th Party Congress will make groundbreaking decisions. Ahead of the 14th Party Congress, Professor Carl Thayer of the Australian Defence College, University of New South Wales, expects the 14th Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam to make groundbreaking decisions.

Source: https://znews.vn/gs-carl-thayer-viet-nam-dang-dinh-hinh-vai-role-cuong-quoc-tam-trung-post1619346.html