Indonesia plans to adjust its coal and rice policies in 2026.

According to information from the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources dated January 8, 2026, Indonesia is considering a significant reduction in coal production in 2026, projected to around 600 million tons, a substantial decrease from the 2025 production level (790 million tons). Prior to this, on December 31, 2025, the Indonesian Ministry of Finance also announced it was discussing the implementation of an export tax on coal, with a projected rate ranging from 5% to 11%, depending on international coal market price fluctuations. Indonesia explains this move as an attempt to curb oversupply, boost export coal prices, and increase government revenue, amid a projected decline in global coal prices in 2025. As a country currently supplying approximately 43% of the total global coal trade, Indonesia's policy adjustment is considered likely to have a ripple effect on the international coal market, impacting production costs and business performance.

Alongside its coal policy, Indonesia is also sending noteworthy signals in the rice sector. Following positive results in achieving food self-sufficiency in 2025, on January 11, 2026, the Director General of the National Logistics Agency (Bulog) announced that the agency has been tasked with preparing approximately 1 million tons of high-quality rice for export in 2026, subject to official presidential approval. With a national rice production target of 34.7 million tons in 2026, estimated rice stocks at the end of 2026 will reach 16.194 million tons. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Indonesia's rice production in 2026 could reach 36 million tons. In this context, on December 31, 2025, the Indonesian Ministry of Food Coordination announced that it would not issue rice import quotas for 2026. Indonesia is currently studying export markets in the Southeast Asian region.

Although Indonesia's rice export plan is currently only a stated direction and depends on many factors (actual production, cost, competitiveness), in the medium term, Indonesia could emerge as a new competitor in the ASEAN market, especially in the high-quality rice segment.

Given the aforementioned policy developments, businesses need to proactively update market information, coordinate closely with industry associations and management agencies to promptly adjust production and business plans. Coal importers need to closely monitor official Indonesian policy information, especially the timing of the final decision on coal production and export taxes; at the same time, they should proactively reassess their supply strategy, diversify coal import markets, and strengthen negotiations for long-term contracts to minimize price fluctuation risks. Rice exporters need to closely monitor Indonesia's export activities, while continuing to improve quality, control costs, and build brands to maintain a competitive advantage in the ASEAN market.

Source: https://moit.gov.vn/tin-tuc/indonesia-du-kien-dieu-chinh-chinh-sach-than-va-gao-nam-2026.html