Fossil fuel emissions to hit record high in 2025

(laichau.gov.vn) According to a recently published study, global emissions from fossil fuels are expected to reach a record high this year while the goal of keeping the Earth's temperature from rising more than 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial times has become almost "impossible".

The annual Global Carbon Budget assesses human-caused CO₂ emissions from fossil fuel burning, cement production and land use, such as deforestation, and compares them with the temperature thresholds of the Paris Agreement on climate change.

Total emissions are expected to hit a record 38.1 billion tonnes of CO₂

CO₂ from fossil fuels is expected to rise by about 1.1% this year compared to last year, an international team of scientists says. Despite the rapid deployment of renewable energy globally, this increase will not be enough to offset continued growth in energy demand. With emissions from oil, gas and coal all rising, total emissions are expected to reach a record 38.1 billion tonnes of CO₂.

The report, released to coincide with the COP30 conference in Brazil, states that the Earth's remaining "carbon budget" is only about 170 billion tonnes of CO₂ if it is to keep warming below the 1.5°C threshold.

"This figure is only equivalent to about four years of emissions at the current rate, so meeting the set targets is essentially impossible," said Pierre Friedlingstein, head of the research team at the University of Exeter (UK).

The delay in cutting emissions is overshadowing COP30, which is taking place in the Amazonian city of Belem. Despite signs that 2025 will continue to rank among the hottest years on record, many countries’ climate plans are still far from the global target.

The study said several large countries or regions were bucking the downward trend in emissions in recent years, partly due to colder winters that increased heating demand. Meanwhile, India saw a smaller increase in CO₂ than in previous years, thanks to an early monsoon and continued rapid growth in renewable energy.

The study also noted that 35 countries have cut emissions while maintaining economic growth, double the number from a decade ago.

Total human emissions are forecast to reach 42.2 billion tonnes this year, slightly lower than last year and with a large margin of error.

Researchers say reduced deforestation and fewer severe wildfires in South America, partly due to the end of the long, dry 2023-2024 El Niño period, contributed to the net reduction in land-use emissions.

Updated on November 14, 2025.

Source: https://laichau.gov.vn/tin-tuc-su-kien/chuyen-de/tin-trong-nuoc/khi-thai-tu-nhien-lieu-hoa-thach-cao-ky-luc-trong-nam-2025.html