Exceptional growth has driven a surge in GDP per capita.
According to the General Statistics Office, GDP growth in 2025 is projected to be quite high, with an estimated increase of 8.02% compared to the previous year. This is one of the highest growth rates in the world , far surpassing developed, developing, and regional countries.
With a high growth rate, Vietnam's GDP at current prices in 2025 is estimated to reach over 12.8 million billion VND, equivalent to approximately 514 billion USD (based on the average annual exchange rate of 24,976 VND/USD), an increase of 38 billion USD compared to 2024.
Furthermore, the GDP per capita in 2025 is estimated to reach 125.5 million VND/person, equivalent to 5,026 USD, an increase of 326 USD compared to 4,700 USD in 2024. Prior to that, the GDP per capita in 2024 had already increased significantly compared to 2023, reaching approximately 114 million VND/person, equivalent to 4,700 USD.
Vietnam's economy is accelerating. Photo: Nguyen Hue
According to the latest World Bank classification for fiscal year 2024 (July 1, 2023 - July 1, 2024), Vietnam has not yet entered the group of upper-middle-income countries . Meanwhile, Thailand and Indonesia are already in this group, with per capita incomes of US$7,100 and US$4,910 respectively; the Philippines has reached approximately US$4,470.
The World Bank classifies national income based on gross national income (GNI) per capita, not GDP. GNI is calculated by adding GDP to the difference in labor income and property income between domestic and foreign sources.
Although Vietnam does not yet have official GNI figures for 2025, with a GDP growth rate of 8.02% and positive prospects for FDI inflows, remittances, and income from property ownership, per capita GNI is projected to continue to grow strongly in 2025. Assuming stable exchange rates, it is highly likely that Vietnam will have reached or surpassed the threshold of a substantive upper-middle-income country by 2025.
The World Bank's classification of national income.
A new era for the Vietnamese economy.
The above figures demonstrate Vietnam's remarkable progress over the past period. From a poor and backward economy, once among the low-income countries for many decades, Vietnam has come a long way to approach the upper-middle income threshold of the world.
This achievement not only reflects impressive economic growth but also the result of institutional reforms, opening up to international integration, strong attraction of foreign investment, development of industry and services, and a gradual improvement in the quality of human resources. The continuous improvement in GDP per capita and per capita income in recent years shows that the economy is moving to a new stage of development, creating a foundation for the formation of an increasingly expanding middle class.
In an interview with VietNamNet , Dr. Can Van Luc, Chief Economist of BIDV and member of the Prime Minister's Policy Advisory Council, stated that if Vietnam achieves an average GDP growth rate of 9% per year during the 2026-2030 period and 8% during the 2031-2045 period, the average gross national income (GNI) per capita is estimated to reach US$22,600 by the end of 2045.
Therefore, Mr. Luc argues that Vietnam does not necessarily need to achieve double-digit growth in the next 10-20 years at all costs, but can still achieve the goal of becoming a developed, high-income country by 2045 as planned.
According to him, Vietnam needs to develop rapidly but also sustainably and inclusively, ensuring macroeconomic, political, social, and environmental stability. Inflation must be controlled below 5%, the budget deficit at 4-4.5%, and public debt below 60% of GDP under all circumstances. In particular, economic growth should not be achieved at the expense of environmental pollution and macroeconomic instability.
“To achieve this, we need to ensure structural, qualitative, and efficient growth. Regarding the economic structure, we need to calculate how to balance the agricultural sector appropriately, ensuring both food security and quality and value. Then, we need to carefully consider how to appropriately balance the industrial-construction and service sectors,” Mr. Luc said.
The road ahead demands a drastic shift in the economy from extensive growth to growth based on productivity, knowledge, and high technology. Only by overcoming the "middle-income trap" can Vietnam move closer to its goal of becoming a high-income country, ensuring sustainable prosperity for future generations.
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Source: https://vietnamnet.vn/kinh-te-tang-toc-viet-nam-tien-len-nac-thang-thu-nhap-moi-2479112.html
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