Experts are optimistic about Vietnam's economic growth in 2026 - Photo: QUANG DINH
At the Business Coffee program with the theme "Vietnam's economic forecast 2026: Growth, interest rates and exchange rates" organized by the Ho Chi Minh City Business Association (HUBA) on November 29, Dr. Can Van Luc (Member of the Prime Minister 's Policy Advisory Council) forecasted that Vietnam's GDP growth rate in 2026 will reach 9-10%.
According to Mr. Luc, the main growth drivers are forecast to recover evenly, in which public investment is strongly promoted with a 100% disbursement plan (about 34-35 billion USD, equivalent to 7% of GDP).
With this figure, Vietnam currently has the highest public investment level compared to GDP in Asia.
Mr. Luc said that well-disbursed public investment could help economic growth by about 2 percentage points.
Besides, domestic consumption is currently considered the most important driving force, contributing 60% to economic growth.
Regarding interest rates, Mr. Luc said that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is showing a tendency to cut interest rates, and is expected to cut interest rates again in December. According to him, the US interest rate cut is a positive signal for Vietnamese businesses because it helps reduce the USD interest rate level, reduce pressure on exchange rates and reduce capital flows out of Vietnam.
Regarding the domestic market, Mr. Luc said that the State Bank plans to continue maintaining low operating interest rates to promote growth. Although deposit interest rates may increase due to the attractiveness of other investment channels (stocks, real estate), the State Bank and the Government require banks not to increase lending interest rates, which means banks accept a reduction in profit margins.
Regarding the exchange rate, Mr. Luc said that the exchange rate next year will be "easier to breathe" when the Fed cuts interest rates and the gold market will be more stable.
Meanwhile, Mr. Dominic Scriven - Chairman of Dragon Capital - said that the 10% growth target next year is ambitious, but he expects Vietnam to achieve this target due to driving forces such as converting 5 million business households into enterprises, increasing FDI capital flows and accelerating public investment...
Besides, Mr. Dominic Scriven also had an optimistic assessment of the capital market when Vietnam was upgraded to a stock market, corporate profits recovered and grew...
Assessing the economic picture in 2026, Mr. Dominic Scriven commented that this will be a "quite favorable year for businesses".
Need to restructure capital flows to avoid risks
Dr. Can Van Luc believes that a sustainable capital structure should be 40% bank capital and 25% capital from the stock and bond markets - Photo: NH
Despite the good prospects, experts still expressed concerns about capital allocation when capital still mainly relies on banks.
Mr. Dominic Scriven warned that financing long-term investments with short-term capital (bank capital) poses great risks, similar to the lesson Vietnam encountered in the 2008-2011 period.
Meanwhile, Dr. Can Van Luc said that the sustainable capital structure should be 40% bank capital and 25% capital from the stock and bond markets, while emphasizing the need to develop a long-term capital market to support innovative and start-up businesses.
Source: https://tuoitre.vn/kinh-te-viet-nam-2026-tang-truong-lai-suat-va-ti-gia-se-bien-dong-ra-sao-20251129161416266.htm
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