The period from 2021 to 2025 is one of the most challenging times for the Vietnamese economy in recent decades. The Covid-19 pandemic, geopolitical tensions, and the slowdown of the global economy have created a challenging context, forcing the economy to both cope and find ways to adapt and recover.
Despite enduring unprecedented shocks, Vietnam's economy remains spectacular.
The Covid-19 pandemic, which broke out at the beginning of the 2021-2025 period, was an objective factor that created a major shock to the economy.
In 2021, large-scale outbreaks, particularly in manufacturing and growth centers such as Ho Chi Minh City, Hanoi , Binh Duong, Bac Ninh, and Dong Nai, severely disrupted domestic production and supply chains. Many businesses were forced to withdraw from the market due to their inability to sustain operations.
Gathering information for Covid-19 testing of 10,000 industrial park workers in the former Bac Giang outbreak area in May 2021 (Photo: Quang Vinh).
As the pandemic gradually came under control, the economy faced a new shock from disruptions in global supply chains in the post-Covid-19 period. Shortages of raw materials and components, along with rising shipping costs, directly impacted Vietnam's key manufacturing and export industries.
At the same time, geopolitical conflicts, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict since the beginning of 2022, continued to increase instability in the global economy. Energy prices and many input materials rose sharply, putting significant pressure on production costs, inflation, and domestic macroeconomic management.
Entering 2023, the global economy continues to face numerous challenges as aggregate demand declines, growth in many major economies falls short of expectations. Inflation, while showing signs of cooling, remains high; monetary policy remains tight; global public debt is increasing; and geopolitical conflicts, food security instability, and climate change are becoming increasingly complex.
By 2024, risks from the international economic environment remain present, continuing to impact Vietnam's economic recovery prospects. The consequences of the pandemic have not been fully overcome; global trade growth remains low; and fluctuations in energy, food prices, and interest rates continue to put pressure on production and business activities.
Despite the continuous impact of domestic and international fluctuations on the economy, the period from 2021 to 2025 still demonstrates the remarkable adaptability and recovery of the Vietnamese economy. Effective control of the pandemic, timely implementation of large-scale fiscal and monetary policy support packages, and the timely reopening of the economy have helped growth quickly regain momentum and maintain a high level compared to many countries in the region.
Overall, for the period 2021-2025, average GDP growth is projected to reach approximately 6.3% per year; specifically, for the period 2022-2025, it is expected to exceed 7% if 2021, a year heavily impacted by the pandemic, is excluded.
In 2025, despite pressure from retaliatory US tariffs and a volatile global economic environment, Vietnam's GDP is projected to grow by 8.02%, placing it among the highest in the region and the world. The economy will surpass $510 billion; GDP per capita will reach over $5,000, bringing Vietnam closer to the group of upper-middle-income countries.
Textile and garment businesses are operating after the Covid-19 pandemic (Photo: XH).
Along with growth, macroeconomic stability continues to be maintained. The average consumer price index (CPI) for the period 2021-2025 is controlled below 4%, the supply and demand of basic essential goods are stable, and the overall price level is under control. Public debt has decreased sharply from 44.3% of GDP in 2020 to approximately 35-36% of GDP in 2025, creating more room for policy management in the medium and long term.
State budget revenue over the past five years reached nearly 9.88 trillion VND, exceeding the target by 18.1%, while the State continued to implement policies on tax and fee exemptions, reductions, and extensions totaling approximately 1.1 trillion VND to support businesses and people in overcoming difficulties.
Trade activity continues to be a bright spot, with import and export turnover increasing sharply, from approximately US$545 billion in 2020 to over US$930 billion in 2025, placing Vietnam among the top 20 largest trading economies in the world.
Vietnam currently has trade relations with over 230 economies; 34 export markets and 24 import markets have trade turnover exceeding US$1 billion. The domestic market is also recovering positively, with total retail sales in 2025 increasing by over 9% compared to the previous year; tourism is experiencing strong growth, welcoming 21.1 million international visitors - the highest level ever.
The financial, monetary, and foreign exchange markets are fundamentally stable; the stock market has been upgraded by FTSE to a secondary emerging market. The Vietnam International Finance Centre has been established and is expected to become operational from the end of 2025, opening up new prospects for the development of the financial market.
A notable highlight is the recovery and development of the private sector. In 2025 alone, nearly 297,500 new businesses were registered or resumed operations, an increase of over 27% compared to the previous year. Nationwide, there are currently over 1 million active businesses, an increase of over 160,000 compared to 2024 and over 20% compared to 2020, demonstrating a gradual strengthening of market confidence.
Vietnam's import and export turnover is expected to exceed US$930 billion by 2025, placing it among the world's top 20 largest trading economies (Photo: Hai Long).
Alongside the expansion in scale, the period from 2021 to 2025 also witnessed positive changes in the economic structure. The digital economy and green economy were gradually promoted; digital transformation in state management and business operations was accelerated; and several models of green production and circular economy began to emerge and spread.
Regarding attracting foreign investment, the total registered FDI capital for the period 2021-2025 is expected to reach approximately US$185 billion; in 2025 alone, disbursed FDI capital is projected to exceed US$27.6 billion, continuing to be a bright spot in the overall economic picture. Markets are being strengthened towards stability, modernization, and integration, contributing to maintaining major balances and creating a favorable environment for production, business, and investment development.
Key drivers for Vietnam's economic breakthrough.
Mr. Nguyen Si Dung, former Deputy Head of the National Assembly Office and member of the Prime Minister's Policy Advisory Council, believes that innovation is the most important driving force for Vietnam's economy to achieve breakthroughs in the coming period.
Traditional resources such as labor, natural resources, and even many non-financial resources are limited. Meanwhile, the almost limitless resources lie in creativity, human intelligence, and science and technology. "These are the foundations that determine the long-term competitiveness of the economy," he emphasized.
Another important driving force he mentioned is international economic integration. Vietnam is currently among the countries with the deepest levels of integration in the ASEAN region, with a diverse network of new-generation free trade agreements that are increasingly effective. Along with this, enhancing the competitiveness of institutions is considered a key condition for transforming integration opportunities into genuine growth.
"Although the institutional framework still has areas that need further improvement, Vietnam's direction is correct. Businesses can accept market risks, but risks arising from human behavior or policy changes need to be minimized. This is the direction we are pursuing," Mr. Dung stated.
From his perspective, an equally important driving force is the will to excel and the desire to contribute of the Vietnamese business community, as well as of each individual citizen, in the process of national development.
Innovation is the most important driving force for Vietnam's economy to achieve breakthroughs in the coming period (Photo: Hai Long).
From an operational perspective, Deputy Minister of Finance Nguyen Duc Chi stated that during the 2021-2025 period, the Vietnamese economy clearly demonstrated its resilience and recovery capabilities, maintaining a high growth rate and ranking among the world's fastest-growing economies.
Aiming for double-digit growth from 2026 onwards, the Government will focus on consolidating and improving the effectiveness of traditional growth drivers, while strongly promoting new growth drivers.
The primary focus is on continuing to improve institutions and innovate thinking in lawmaking and enforcement towards a constructive and developmental approach; concentrating on removing bottlenecks and shifting strongly from a managerial mindset to a constructive one, thereby creating a favorable environment for economic entities to develop.
Mobilizing, allocating, and effectively utilizing resources for development is identified as a key task. Public investment continues to play a leading role, while attracting foreign investment is improved in quality and efficiency, linked to technology transfer and value chain development.
The capital market and financial market will be developed in a coordinated manner to diversify medium and long-term capital mobilization channels, improve the efficiency of resource allocation and the economy's capital absorption capacity, especially in the manufacturing sector.
Furthermore, the growth model is strongly oriented towards a direction based on science and technology, innovation, and digital transformation; promoting the driving role of the processing and manufacturing industry; and developing high-quality human resources in line with market demand and the requirements of the new development phase.
The private sector continues to be identified as one of the key drivers of the economy, with policies creating conditions for its deeper participation in key sectors, large projects, and value chains domestically and globally, in line with the spirit of Resolution 68 of the Politburo.
Simultaneously, the synchronized development of socio-economic infrastructure, especially strategic infrastructure, is considered the foundation for rapid and sustainable growth. The focus is on transportation infrastructure, logistics, digital infrastructure, and energy infrastructure, ensuring energy security to serve socio-economic development in the new context.
Emphasizing the goals for the next phase, Deputy Minister Nguyen Duc Chi affirmed the determination to strive for double-digit growth starting in 2026, creating a solid foundation for the next development phase. With decisive and coordinated leadership, along with the effective implementation of key solutions, this goal is considered achievable and entirely feasible.
Source: https://dantri.com.vn/kinh-doanh/kinh-te-viet-nam-qua-nhung-phep-thu-lon-5-nam-van-tang-truong-ngoan-muc-20260112012637141.htm
Comment (0)