The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting said that currently, ocean-atmospheric conditions (ENSO phenomenon) are in a La Nina state with the standard error of sea surface temperature in the central Pacific Ocean at minus 0.5 degrees Celsius.
The South will have unseasonal rain in early 2026
PHOTO: NHAT THINH
It is forecasted that in the next 3 months, the probability of maintaining La Nina status is likely to reach 60 - 75% and the probability of remaining in neutral status is between 25 - 40%.
Under La Nina conditions, the average temperature trend in December 2025 tends to be about 0.5 degrees Celsius lower than the average of many years in the same period. In particular, in the Northern region and the southern provinces of the South Central Coast, the temperature in December 2025 is approximately the average of many years in the same period. In January 2026, the average temperature is generally approximately the average of many years in the same period.
Regarding rainfall, in December 2025, total rainfall in provinces and cities from Quang Tri to Da Nang and the eastern region from Quang Ngai - Dak Lak is generally from 250 - 580 mm, 50 - 150 mm higher than the average of many years; in the Northern region and Thanh Hoa - Ha Tinh provinces, it is generally from 15 - 40 mm, in Ha Tinh alone, total rainfall is generally 80 - 150 mm, 5 - 10 mm lower than the average of many years in the same period.
In January 2026, the total rainfall nationwide was approximately the same as the average of many years. Specifically, in the Northern region and from Thanh Hoa - Ha Tinh, the total rainfall was from 15 - 35 mm; Quang Tri - Hue and the South Central Coast, the total rainfall was from 50 - 150 mm; the total rainfall in the Central Highlands and the South was from 5 - 30 mm.
Meanwhile, cold air is likely to be active in December 2025 - January 2026; severe cold in the North is likely to appear from the second half of December 2025 (equivalent to the average of many years).
In the first half of December 2025, moderate and heavy rains are likely to appear in the Central region, concentrated from Ha Tinh - Da Nang, Khanh Hoa and the eastern region of the provinces from Quang Ngai - Dak Lak.
Unseasonal rain and heat wave appear in the South in early March
The meteorological agency said that from February 2026 to April 2026, ENSO is likely to return to a neutral state with a probability of 55 - 65%, maintain La Nina state with a probability of about 25 - 30% and the possibility of transitioning to El Nino state with a probability of about 5 - 20%.
During this period, the weather nationwide is generally at a level approximately equal to the average of many years in the same period. From February to March 2026, the total rainfall in the Northern region and the provinces and cities from Thanh Hoa to Hue is generally approximately equal to the average of many years; from Da Nang to Lam Dong and the South is generally 10 - 30 mm higher than the average of many years in the same period.
In April 2026, the total rainfall is approximately the average of many years, specifically: in the Northern region in February 2026, the total rainfall is generally from 20 - 40 mm, higher in some places; in March 2026, it is generally from 40 - 70 mm; in April 2026, it is generally 50 - 100 mm, in the Northwest region, it is over 110 mm in some places.
In the Central region, in February 2026, total rainfall from Thanh Hoa - Hue is generally from 20 - 50 mm; in the South Central coastal region, total rainfall is generally from 50 - 120 mm; in March 2026, it is generally from 30 - 70 mm, higher in some places; in April 2026, it is generally from 50 - 150 mm.
Central Highlands and Southern region: February 2026, the Central Highlands will generally have little rain, total rainfall will generally be under 10 mm, the Southern region will generally have from 10 - 30 mm, higher in some places; March 2026 will generally have from 30 - 70 mm; April 2026 will generally have from 50 - 150 mm.
Regarding dangerous weather, the meteorological agency forecasts that in the South, there is a possibility of heat waves appearing from around the beginning of March 2026 in the Southeast; then from the end of March and the beginning of April 2026, heat waves tend to increase in intensity and gradually expand to the Southwest (equivalent to the average of many years). The Northwest region and from Thanh Hoa - Hue are likely to experience heat waves from around April 2026.
In addition, in the first months of 2026, the South is likely to experience unseasonal rains. From late February 2026 to March 2025, the North is likely to experience light rain and drizzle.
Dinh Huy - Phan Hau
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