La Nina is likely to end early, with central and southern regions experiencing several periods of unseasonal rain.

According to forecasts, the central and southern regions of Vietnam will experience more unseasonal rains than in previous years during the first months of 2026.

The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting has just released a climate forecast bulletin for the entire country from January to June 2026.

Accordingly, the current oceanic atmospheric conditions (ENSO phenomenon) are in a La Nina state, with the sea surface temperature anomaly in the central Pacific Ocean during the first week of December 2025 at -0.5 degrees Celsius.

La Nina is likely to end early, with central and southern regions experiencing several periods of unseasonal rain.

Over the next three months, the ENSO phenomenon is likely to gradually shift to a neutral state with a probability of 60-65%, while the probability of remaining in a La Nina state is lower than previously predicted and is only at the level of 35-40%.

From January to March 2026, the average temperature nationwide will generally be close to the multi-year average, except in the northern region where January 2026 will generally be 0.5 - 1 degree Celsius higher than the multi-year average for the same period.

Regarding total rainfall, the country generally experienced levels close to the multi-year average; however, the Central Highlands and Southern regions generally saw higher rainfall compared to the multi-year average for the same period.

During this period, typhoons and tropical depressions are less likely to appear in the South China Sea; cold air masses are likely to be less active than the multi-year average, but may still cause periods of severe cold weather.

From around the latter half of February and March 2026, light rain and drizzle are likely to occur frequently in provinces and cities in the North (similar to the multi-year average). Meanwhile, showers and thunderstorms will also occur in the eastern areas of provinces from Quang Ngai to Dak Lak and Khanh Hoa in the latter half of December 2025 and January 2026.

Unseasonal rains are increasing.

Notably, during the dry season months at the beginning of 2026, the Central Highlands and Southern regions of Vietnam are likely to experience more days and periods of unseasonal rain than in previous years.

In Southern Vietnam, hot weather is likely to occur from around the end of February to the beginning of March 2026 in the southeastern region; then it tends to increase in intensity and gradually spread to the southwestern region (equivalent to the multi-year average). In the northwestern region, localized hot weather may occur from March 2026.

According to meteorological agencies, during the period from April to June 2026, ENSO is likely to remain in a neutral state with a probability of 65-75%, the probability of shifting to an El Niño state is approximately 10-25%, and the probability of shifting to a La Niña state is less than 15%.

During this period, the Central and Southern highlands will continue to experience higher-than-average rainfall; Northern Vietnam in June 2025 will see rainfall 5-15% higher than the multi-year average.

From April to June 2026, the number of typhoons and tropical depressions in the East Sea will be similar to the multi-year average; however, the likelihood of them making landfall in Vietnam is not high. Cold fronts may continue to be active, but their intensity and frequency are expected to gradually decrease.

The Northwest region and the area from Thanh Hoa to Hue are likely to experience heatwaves starting around April 2026, then gradually expanding to the entire Northern and Central regions from the end of April 2026. The Southern region will experience widespread heatwaves in April 2026, then gradually decrease in intensity.

Moderate to heavy rainfall is likely to occur in Northern Vietnam, the Central Highlands, and Southern Vietnam from around May 2026.

According to Thanh Nien newspaper

Source: https://thanhnien.vn/la-nina-kha-nang-ket-thuc-som-mien-trung-mien-nam-hung-nhieu-dot-mua-trai-mua-185251217104322856.htm

Source: https://baolongan.vn/la-nina-kha-nang-ket-thuc-som-mien-trung-mien-nam-hung-nhieu-dot-mua-trai-mua-a208577.html