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| The OECD has raised its global economic growth forecast from 2.2% in its Economic Outlook released in November 2022. (Source: The New York Times) |
In its interim economic outlook, the OECD said the world economy is on track to grow 2.6% in 2022 after growing 3.2% as central bank tightening measures take full effect.
The Paris-based organization raised its global economic growth forecast from 2.2% in its November 2022 Economic Outlook, citing lower energy and food prices and China's easing of Covid-19 restrictions.
In 2024, global growth is expected to edge up to 2.9%, compared with the November 2022 forecast of 2.7% growth, as the impact of high energy prices on household incomes fades.
The OECD forecasts that inflation in the Group of 20 (G20) leading developed and emerging economies will fall from 8.1% in 2022 to 5.9% this year and continue to fall to 4.5% in 2024, but will still be higher than the target despite many central banks raising interest rates.
The OECD said it was difficult to assess the impact of higher interest rates, warning that increased financial stress faced by borrowers could lead to losses for some banks, citing the recent collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in the US.
On March 16, the European Central Bank (ECB) raised interest rates by 0.5 percentage points to fight inflation, despite turmoil in financial markets following the collapse of SVB and the ongoing worrisome situation of Switzerland's second-largest bank Credit Suisse.
The OECD predicts central bank policy rates will peak at 5.25%-5.5% in the US and 4.25% in the Eurozone and the UK, with banks likely to ease "mildly" in 2024 if inflation falls.
The OECD forecasts US economic growth will slow from 1.5% this year to 0.9% in 2024 as higher interest rates dampen demand.
After easing Covid-19 prevention measures, China's economy is forecast to grow 5.3% this year and 4.9% in 2024, up from the November 2022 forecast of 4.6% and 4.1%, respectively.
The outlook for the Eurozone economy has also improved thanks to lower energy prices, with the Eurozone economy expected to grow by 0.8% this year, followed by 1.5% in 2024. The OECD had previously forecast economic growth in 2023 and 2024 of 0.5% and 1.4%, respectively.
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