MB Economic Insights is an annual economic forum organized by Military Commercial Joint Stock Bank (MB) for over a decade, aiming to support businesses in the face of global economic fluctuations. This year's theme is "Proactive Adaptation - Creating Momentum for Breakthroughs".
According to international organizations such as the IMF, World Bank, and OECD, Vietnam continues to be a bright spot in the Asian region in 2025 with a projected growth rate of 6.2–6.8%, among the highest in the world . A stable macroeconomic foundation, inflation controlled around 3–4%, and strong domestic purchasing power are factors helping Vietnam maintain its growth momentum amidst global uncertainties.
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Overview of the 11th MB Economic Insights Forum |
Mr. Sacha Dray, Chief Economist of the World Bank in Vietnam, presented a topic entitled: “The Current Global and Vietnamese Context: Upcoming Economic Opportunities and Challenges.” Vietnam's economy is recovering strongly, with GDP growth reaching 7.9% in the first nine months of 2025, the highest in a decade, thanks to a thriving industrial production, exports, and services sector.
The IMF also praised China's flexible monetary policy and efforts to improve the investment environment, which have helped attract FDI flows shifting from China to high-tech and green sectors.
However, growth is dependent on exports, global trade is slowing, and fiscal policy space is limited. The OECD forecasts that Vietnam's economy could grow by 6.0-6.5% in 2026 if it continues to accelerate digital transformation, renewable energy, and domestic consumption.
Despite remaining challenges, Vietnam is still seen as a "rarely balanced economy in the region," capable of maintaining stability and moving towards a new phase of breakthrough if it can capitalize on the wave of investment and technological innovation in the next two years.
According to Mr. Nguyen Xuan Thanh, an expert from the Fulbright School of Public Policy and Management - Fulbright University Vietnam, in 2026, Vietnam still has opportunities for positive growth but will face many risks from international trade fluctuations and macroeconomic pressures. GDP is unlikely to reach double digits, but the government's policies will continue to be flexible, prioritizing growth alongside macroeconomic stability.
The biggest challenge comes from the US's retaliatory tariff policy, with an additional 20% tariff increase on many Vietnamese exports, significantly impacting the textile, footwear, furniture, and seafood industries. Despite this, Vietnamese trade remains a bright spot, with the trade balance continuing to show a surplus.
The retaliatory tax policy from the United States has caused exchange rates to rise sharply and shipping costs to escalate. Many customers are facing financial difficulties and delayed payments, leading to increased financial risks for export businesses, said Mr. Tran Mau Huy, representative of Hao Hung Co., Ltd.
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Mr. Pham Nhu Anh, General Director of MB, shared at the forum. |
At the forum, Mr. Pham Nhu Anh, General Director of MB, shared: "Proactive adaptation means that financial institutions and businesses need to identify, analyze, understand, and calculate the potential fluctuations that may occur in 2026."
MB will work closely with import-export businesses to exchange information, assess, and prepare appropriate response solutions. Based on the trends highlighted by experts at the forum, clearly identifying sectors negatively impacted and those with growth opportunities, based on the global and domestic policy context, is a key factor in helping businesses maintain growth momentum. On this basis, MB will design suitable financial products for each import-export sector, supporting customers in seizing opportunities and mitigating risks.
From the perspective of the regulatory authorities, Ms. Trinh Thi Thu Hien, Deputy Director of the Import-Export Department ( Ministry of Industry and Trade ), stated that the cumulative import-export turnover of Vietnam in the first 10 months of 2025 is estimated at approximately US$762 billion, an increase of 17.4% compared to the same period last year. Of this, exports reached US$391 billion and imports reached US$371 billion. The trade surplus of over US$19.5 billion is considered a positive foundation, helping the Vietnamese economy enter the fourth quarter with a proactive mindset. However, adjustments to trade policy from the United States have put short-term pressure on some labor-intensive industries such as textiles and footwear. Nevertheless, the overall export picture remains positive thanks to the stable growth of high value-added sectors such as electronic components, agricultural products, processed foods, chemicals, and high-tech products.
In response to the increasing demands of integration, the Government has directed ministries and agencies to enhance transparency regarding the origin of goods and to strictly implement international commitments.
"Currently, we are actively coordinating with industry associations to consult and propose appropriate regulations on rules of origin, in order to ensure that legally originating products are eligible for preferential tariffs," added Ms. Trinh Thi Thu Hien.
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MB Economic Insights has become a knowledge-sharing platform connecting academia, government agencies, and the business community. |
After more than a decade of maintenance and development, MB Economic Insights has transcended the boundaries of an economic analysis forum, becoming a space for connecting knowledge between academics, government agencies, and the business community. Through in-depth discussions, the forum contributes to shaping new development thinking, enhancing management capacity, and improving the adaptability of Vietnamese businesses in the era of global integration.
Source: https://thoibaonganhang.vn/mb-economic-insights-dong-hanh-cung-doanh-nghiep-and-but-pha-nam-2026-173325.html
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