Integrated Modeling: A New Step in Disaster Early Warning

Scientists at the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting have successfully built an integrated model and technological process to forecast coastal flooding caused by storm surges and waves - an important milestone contributing to improving our country's early warning capacity for natural disasters.

Mastering the integrated wind-storm-wave-surge model

World practice shows that the devastation caused by major storms such as Katrina (2005), Haiyan (2013), Amphan (2020) or Helene (2024) comes not only from strong winds but mainly from the combination of surges, big waves and high tides. Vietnam also suffered heavy losses due to this mechanism, especially in 2025, when storms Kajiki and Bualoi caused large surges in many coastal provinces.

Coastal flooding due to rising water levels seriously affects people's lives.

Despite many advances in hydrodynamic research, Vietnam's ability to forecast coastal flooding during storms is still limited due to incomplete understanding of the interaction between tides - waves - surges, as well as computational capacity that does not meet detailed simulation requirements. In response to that urgent need, the Ministry of Science and Technology has ordered the scientific task "Research on building a set of models and technological processes to forecast coastal flooding due to surges and waves during storms" (code DTĐL.CN-46/22) chaired by Associate Professor, Dr. Nguyen Ba Thuy, National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (Department of Hydrometeorology), to be implemented from December 2022 to November 2025. The three main objectives of the project are to build an integrated model to forecast coastal flooding due to surges and waves during storms; Experimental application for two coastal areas (with and without dikes) and proposed technological process and plan for forecasting coastal flooding due to storm surge and waves.

After 36 months of implementation, the research team has completed the set goals. Based on a large amount of data on meteorology, hydrology, oceanography, and terrain that was collected and processed meticulously, the team integrated three advanced models: WRF (storm wind simulation), SWAN (wave simulation) and ADCIRC (surge and flow simulation) to create a comprehensive flood forecasting system for coastal areas of Vietnam.

In Thanh Hoa , the system was tested on a 1/10,000 scale topographic map, simulating many storm scenarios combined with high tides to accurately determine the flooded area, the level of impact on sea dykes, residential areas, infrastructure and aquaculture areas. The forecasting process was also built separately for areas with and without dykes – which is especially important in the practice of natural disaster prevention in Vietnam.

The highest water level observed at Sam Son and Hon Ngu stations during the three storms that caused the largest water surges in the area in recent years.

During the 2025 storm season, the model was tested professionally and gave results that “highly matched” actual observations. Many experts assessed this as a significant step forward in forecasting coastal flooding in Vietnam.

Deputy Director of the Department of Hydrometeorology Hoang Duc Cuong commented, “The project has met its objectives and the products have practical applications. When put into operation, the model will make an important contribution to improving early warning capacity and minimizing damage in coastal areas.”

Along with that, a set of flood maps corresponding to storm levels 11-14 according to many scenarios, including high tide periods and future milestones in 2050 and 2100 taking into account climate change, has been transferred to the Northern Hydrometeorological Station, helping localities to be proactive in planning and responding to natural disasters.

Associate Professor Dr. Nguyen Ba Thuy said that to operate the model in real-time mode, Vietnam needs to invest in a powerful computing system because integrated hydrodynamic models require high processing capacity. Completing the computing infrastructure will determine the ability to widely apply it nationwide.

Foundation for building a national early warning system

According to experts, the model can be replicated in many coastal localities such as Thua Thien Hue, Quang Ngai, Binh Dinh, Khanh Hoa, Ben Tre and Ca Mau, which are frequently affected by storms, rising sea levels and high tides. This will be an important decision-making tool for local authorities in evacuating people, ensuring the safety of boats, protecting tourism infrastructure, marine economy and planning coastal urban development.

Although it is difficult to quantify the direct contribution to local GRDP, Associate Professor Dr. Nguyen Ba Thuy emphasized that the indirect socio-economic value is extremely large: "Proper warning of flood levels can preserve assets for up to decades of exploitation, protect thousands of offshore fishing vessels, hundreds of thousands of hectares of aquaculture, and most importantly, protect people's lives."

Associate Professor, Dr. Nguyen Ba Thuy, on behalf of the research team, presented a summary of the research content and results of the task.

The development and mastery of an integrated coastal flood forecasting model demonstrates Vietnam's self-reliance in the field of modern marine forecasting. The model contributes to the development of a national-scale early warning system, suitable for Vietnam's natural conditions and climate change.

From the initial results achieved, the hydrometeorological sector is forming smart, high-tech forecasting capacity, proactively protecting the community from extreme weather phenomena. This is not only a scientific task, but also a strategy to ensure social security, national security and sustainable development of the marine economy in the future.

The project also achieved outstanding scientific results: 2 scientific works were published in international journals in the SCI/SCIE/SCOPUS category; 7 works were published in international conferences or domestic specialized journals; and 2 PhDs and 1 Master were trained. The group also cooperated closely with Japanese and Norwegian experts, thereby acquiring and mastering many advanced technologies in the field of marine forecasting.

The project has made outstanding and sustainable contributions to the field of marine forecasting science and technology in Vietnam, while closely following and realizing the general goals of the Basic Science Development Program in the fields of Chemistry, Life Sciences, Earth Sciences and Marine Sciences for the period 2017-2025.

The development and mastery of an integrated coastal flood forecasting model is not only a scientific achievement but also a strategic solution to help Vietnam improve its disaster response capacity in the context of increasingly complex climate change. This is an important premise for moving towards a modern, accurate and sustainable national-scale early warning system.

Thu Huong

Source: https://daidoanket.vn/mo-hinh-tich-hop-buoc-tien-moi-trong-canh-bao-som-thien-tai.html