Mr. X30 Pham Luu Hung: Stocks will accumulate and rise in the new year, instead of rising vertically.

According to Mr. Pham Luu Hung, Chief Economist of SSI Research, the main trend of the market is likely to be a "sideway-up" – accumulation leading to an upward trend – rather than a vertical upward cycle like in many previous periods.

Báo Tuổi Trẻ•16/02/2026

Stocks - Image 1.

Joining the emerging market group could bring in approximately $1.5 billion from ETFs - Photo: HUU HANH

Entering 2026, the Vietnamese stock market welcomes the new year with a rather special mindset: the most important structural foundations for the upgrade process have clearly converged.

Stock markets are unlikely to experience a "spring boom".

While previously upgrades were primarily a long-term expectation, the current situation provides specific timelines that allow the market to realistically monitor and assess progress.

In this context, the dominant market trend is likely to be a "sideway-up" – accumulation leading upwards – rather than a steep upward cycle like in previous periods.

The impetus for this trend doesn't come from a single leap, but rather from the synergy of high economic growth targets, continued leading public investment flows, and an increasingly clear recovery in domestic consumption.

These factors create a sufficiently solid, though not overly dramatic, foundation for the market to maintain its upward trajectory in the new year.

According to SSI Research's estimates, the profits of listed companies could increase by approximately 14.5% in 2026. This increase may not create a "springtime boom," but it is enough to consolidate a sustainable upward trend, while signaling a period of stronger differentiation, where truly high-quality companies will be valued higher, while weaker stocks will struggle to continue following the general upward trend.

The biggest focus of 2026 remains the story of the upgrade to FTSE Russell status. While 2025 was the year the market reflected expectations, 2026 will be the year of implementation, with two key milestones: the March review and the time when ETF capital flows can become more clearly disbursed around September.

Preliminary estimates suggest that joining the emerging market group could bring in around $1.5 billion from ETFs – not including active capital inflows.

But more important than the monetary value is the qualitative effect: upgrading its status will help Vietnam move deeper into the global financial system, raise transparency standards, and significantly expand access to international capital – factors that lay the foundation for its longer-term goals.

Specifically, the likelihood of Vietnam being included in MSCI's watchlist as early as June 2026 is increasingly assessed as high, especially as the foreign ownership limit on the HoSE has significantly improved (increasing from 41.7% at the end of 2024 to 45.2% in February 2026) thanks to the emergence of many large-cap stocks with a 100% foreign ownership limit.

This is a factor that helps increase market depth and expand the portfolio of investable stocks for international index funds.

The sensitive variable is called interest rate.

However, despite the bright outlook at the beginning of the year, the market still needs to pay attention to the most sensitive variable: interest rates.

The rise in overnight interest rates in the interbank market at the end of January and beginning of February was most likely technical and volatile rather than indicating a clear signal.

However, interest rates are unlikely to remain at the record lows seen in 2025, as the loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) has been steadily increasing in recent years.

If interest rates tend to rise, the spread between income yields and deposit interest rates will narrow, affecting the attractiveness of stocks to short-term investors.

In that case, market liquidity could remain in the range of 30,000-35,000 billion VND/session, making it difficult to create a strong breakthrough despite some support from capital flows for market upgrades.

Another variable is margin debt, which exceeded VND 410 trillion by the end of 2025, setting a new high. On the positive side, the equity capital of securities companies also increased to VND 375 trillion, bringing the margin/equity ratio to around 105%, which is relatively healthy.

However, with individual investors still accounting for over 80% of transactions, high margin means the market is more volatile during corrections, especially when the VN-Index approaches historical peaks.

In terms of valuation, the projected P/E ratio for 2025 is 14.9 times – higher than the 10-year average – largely reflecting expectations of earnings growth this year.

However, by 2026, the projected P/E ratio is expected to decrease to around 12.7 times, a level considered more attractive given Vietnam's target of 10% GDP growth and its shift to a growth cycle based more on reforms and effective implementation.

In a favorable scenario, the VN-Index could head towards 2,120 points, equivalent to an increase of approximately 18.8% for the whole year. However, the market will not rise in a "straight line," but rather in a rotational flow of money between different sectors.

Stock groups to watch in 2026

In this context, banks continue to play a pivotal role with projected profit growth of around 17.3%, notably CTG, VCB, VPB, and MBB.

The consumer sector is expected to maintain double-digit growth thanks to retail expansion and tax policy changes taking effect from 2026. Infrastructure and construction materials benefit from public investment and a real estate recovery; while real estate may be more suitable for short-term trading strategies.

Additionally, a slightly upward trend in interest rates could support insurance companies and businesses with large cash reserves in the oil and gas or fertilizer sectors.

The story of state-owned enterprise reform under Resolution 79 (accompanied by specific action programs - expected to be issued soon) could also help improve sentiment towards GAS, PLX, and GVR stocks.

The technology sector, in particular – after a sluggish 2025 – now has valuations and earnings bases attractive enough to enter a new recovery cycle.

Overall, the stock market in 2026 promises to be a year that is not overly boisterous but rich in resilience – much like the atmosphere of the new year: not necessarily dazzling, but still full of hope.

Stocks - Photo 2.