In the very first weeks of the year, global commodity and stock markets experienced significant volatility, reflecting the sensitive state of capital flows and inflation expectations.
Assets experienced significant fluctuations at the beginning of the year.
2025 concluded with a picture of cooling inflation, but uneven across regions, divergent monetary policies, and a strong surge in precious metal prices. Entering 2026, this trend of increasing volatility is expected to continue.
Gold prices surged in the first six weeks of the year, at one point soaring to nearly $5,600 per ounce (January 29) before correcting sharply to around $4,400 per ounce (February 2). After the sharp decline, the precious metal recovered, fluctuating around $4,900–$5,100 per ounce. Domestically, the price of SJC gold once exceeded VND 191 million per tael before cooling down to around VND 180 million per tael.
Silver has also seen significant volatility, surging above $121 per ounce before plummeting to $66 per ounce, currently trading around $78 per ounce. Besides its role as a safe-haven asset, silver benefits from industrial demand related to artificial intelligence and clean energy. However, the high volatility of this precious metal group also reflects increased defensive sentiment in the market.
US stocks faced profit-taking pressure after a period of consecutive historical highs driven by technology stocks linked to AI. The US dollar and US Treasury bonds also experienced sell-offs in early-year sessions, pushing yields higher amid concerns about inflation and public debt pressure.
The cryptocurrency market is not immune to this trend. Bitcoin briefly fell below $70,000 during the trading session on the night of February 5-6, demonstrating the high sensitivity of this risky asset to macroeconomic fluctuations.
These developments are taking place against a backdrop of record-high global debt, exceeding pre-pandemic levels. US public debt alone has surpassed $38 trillion. The large volume of bonds maturing in 2026 creates significant refinancing pressure, potentially increasing interest rate volatility and international capital flows.
Gold prices and financial markets experienced significant volatility at the beginning of 2026. Photo: BTA
Growth prospects and new supporting factors
Despite increased volatility, the global economy still has supporting factors. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts growth in 2026 to remain around 3.3%, thanks to more favorable financial conditions and a wave of investment in artificial intelligence (AI) boosting productivity.
The application of AI, automation, and robotics in manufacturing and services is creating a new growth cycle. Major technology corporations such as Nvidia, Microsoft, and Tesla are expanding their investments in data infrastructure, semiconductor chips, and humanoid robots. These technologies help businesses optimize costs, increase productivity, and shorten product development cycles, thereby improving profit margins and competitiveness.
In finance, machine learning models support risk management and personalized services. In manufacturing, intelligent robots replace many manual processes, reducing errors and increasing delivery speed.
However, the technological transformation also poses challenges regarding employment and skills gaps. Economies that invest heavily in technology education and digital infrastructure are expected to benefit more from the AI-driven growth cycle.
Geopolitical risks and trade fragmentation
Conversely, the United Nations forecasts global growth in 2026 at around 2.7%, lower than pre-pandemic levels, due to weakening trade, high public debt, and persistent geopolitical instability. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) also suggests that global GDP growth could fall from 3.2% in 2025 to 2.9% in 2026.
Geopolitical tensions persist in many regions, increasing the risk of supply chain disruptions. Tight monetary policy, following a period of high inflation, keeps capital costs high, putting pressure on businesses and the real estate market.
Rising public debt in major economies like the US and Japan limits room for fiscal stimulus. In Europe, weak growth in Germany dampens the region's overall momentum. Meanwhile, the green transition requires significant investment, putting pressure on budgets and the private sector.
Recently, the US-China competition has shown signs of expanding into the strategic materials sector. China's tightening control over the supply of rare earth minerals is believed to have created a new supply shock, increasing uncertainty for the global technology production chain.
The global economic landscape in 2026 is presented as a two-sided picture: new growth drivers from technology and supply chain restructuring, but also risks from public debt, geopolitics, and volatility in financial assets. In this context, markets are projected to continue experiencing significant fluctuations, requiring flexible policy management and prudent risk management strategies from businesses and investors.
World gold prices plummet, SJC gold drops by 2 million VND/ounce. The sharp drop in world gold prices is exactly as experts warned about short-term risks. SJC gold quickly fell below the 181 million VND/ounce mark. Nevertheless, global instability remains an important support for this commodity.
Source: https://vietnamnet.vn/nam-2026-vang-bac-rung-lac-manh-ai-thap-hy-vong-tang-truong-2490689.html
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