Armored vehicles believed to belong to Russia burn outside the Avdiivka front (Photo: Ukrainian Army).
Riley Bailey, an expert at the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW), said that Russia appears to be making a mistake in tank combat tactics in Avdiivka, similar to what Ukraine faced in its failed counterattack in June 2023.
Mr. Baily said that this mistake seemed to cause Russia to face great losses when trying to penetrate Kiev's defense line in the above stronghold.
The tactic in question, he said, was to deploy tanks in large groups - an armored column - in the hope of breaking through enemy lines.
He said that attacking positions that were already in a defensive position with armor and tanks would be difficult to succeed. The reason was that both sides had weapons capable of destroying the other side's armored vehicles.
Attacking tanks and armored vehicles are particularly vulnerable when they rush into enemy lines because the terrain on the front line is flat and wide, leaving few areas for them to hide. The proliferation of UAVs on the front line makes tanks more vulnerable to attack.
Western intelligence estimates that Russia is suffering heavy losses in Avdiivka as it continues to attack the area, with some 220 tanks and armored vehicles possibly destroyed. Russia has not commented on this information.
Russia previously claimed that Ukraine suffered heavy losses when it sent large columns of tanks through Moscow's defenses during a counter-offensive in June.
At that time, General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, commander of Ukraine's Tavria forces, admitted that Western-made tanks and armored vehicles were not effective against multi-layered Russian minefields on the southern front.
Some vehicles were badly damaged by mines, forcing Ukrainian units to abandon them and march on foot across the front line, putting them at risk of artillery fire, he said.
Ukrainian M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicle and Leopard 2 tank destroyed during the summer counteroffensive (Photo: The Drive).
Images taken at the scene appear to show that both Russia and Ukraine suffered losses while trying to penetrate each other's lines.
During the counteroffensive in June, Mr. Bailey said that Ukraine recognized the problem and then quickly switched its attack strategy to a combination of small infantry groups and armored vehicles to find gaps in the enemy's defenses to penetrate.
Since then, reports of large-scale Ukrainian armored casualties have dwindled.
Mr. Bailey said that Russia seemed to have repeated the mistake of Ukraine in Avdiivka and suffered significant losses there. Russia has also made recent tactical adjustments.
The expert predicted that Russia would probably wait for the ground to harden in winter to carry out another strong offensive on Avdiivka with armor in the near future.
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