The trend of "cooling down" interest rates.
Since the beginning of 2026, the demand for reducing lending interest rates has continued to be strongly emphasized to support economic growth. The Government and the State Bank of Vietnam have repeatedly requested credit institutions to reduce operating costs, decrease the spread between deposit and lending interest rates, and create conditions for capital to flow into production and business at more reasonable costs.
In fact, interest rates have shown positive signs. Many commercial banks have adjusted deposit interest rates downwards by approximately 0.1 - 0.7% per year across various maturities, creating more room for reducing lending rates. Compared to the end of 2025, some short-term production and business loans and preferential credit packages have decreased by about 0.5 - 1% per year. However, the reduction has not occurred uniformly across banks and is mainly concentrated on new customers or priority sectors.
Current market surveys show that for state-owned commercial banks, the prevailing short-term lending interest rates are around 7.7 - 8.3% per year; medium and long-term interest rates are 11 - 12.5% per year. Some preferential credit packages offer fixed interest rates for the first 12 months at around 9.9 - 10.3% per year.
Meanwhile, for joint-stock commercial banks without state capital, the prevailing short-term lending interest rate is around 8-10.5% per year; medium and long-term interest rates are around 12-14% per year, depending on the bank, collateral, and the level of risk of the loan. From a market perspective, these interest rates have been adjusted downwards. However, for many businesses, especially manufacturing businesses, small and medium-sized enterprises, or businesses with medium and long-term loans, the pressure of capital costs remains quite significant.
Mr. Nguyen Van Hung, director of a business in Hai Duong ward, said that they still need to maintain a certain amount of working capital to import raw materials and produce according to orders. “The cost of raw materials, labor, and transportation has all increased. If interest rates were to decrease by about 1% per year, businesses could save hundreds of millions of dong annually to reinvest or supplement working capital,” Mr. Hung shared.
The demand for capital in Hai Phong continues to remain high. According to the April 2026 report of the State Bank of Vietnam, Region 6, the total outstanding credit in the entire region is estimated at over VND 773,344 billion, an increase of 5.74% compared to the end of 2025. The outstanding credit in Hai Phong alone reached approximately VND 538,344 billion, an increase of 6.05%.
There is still room to lower interest rates.
According to many banking experts, there is still room for further reductions in lending interest rates in the coming period, but this is not significant and unlikely to happen across the board. Lending interest rates are directly affected by input capital costs, system liquidity, exchange rate pressure, inflation, and credit quality.
By the end of the first quarter of 2026, credit growth continued to far outpace deposit growth, reaching 3.18%, while deposits only increased by approximately 0.55%. By the end of April 2026, total banking sector credit increased by 4.42% compared to the beginning of the year, reaching VND 19.42 trillion. However, the rate of deposit growth did not keep pace. As a result, the scale of deposits in Vietnamese Dong is currently about VND 2 trillion lower than the scale of credit.
These figures show that credit is growing faster than deposits, putting certain pressure on the liquidity and cost of capital for banks. Therefore, a sharp decrease in lending interest rates cannot be expected in the short term. When credit demand increases rapidly, banks still have to maintain deposit interest rates at a sufficiently attractive level to retain capital.
Furthermore, although deposit interest rates have decreased recently across some maturities, the cost of capital typically lags behind. Therefore, lending interest rates cannot decrease correspondingly immediately. However, if new deposit interest rates continue to be adjusted downwards and stabilize in the coming months, the average cost of capital for banks will gradually decrease, creating conditions for further reductions in lending interest rates, especially for new loans.
The State Bank of Vietnam continues to require credit institutions to reduce the average interest rate spread between deposits and loans, while also being willing to share a portion of its profits to support customers. Therefore, there is still room to reduce lending interest rates, but it will be difficult to reduce them across the board for all loans. Customers with good cash flow, feasible production plans, clear collateral, and belonging to priority sectors will have the opportunity to access lower interest rates.
Priority sectors such as manufacturing, exports, small and medium-sized enterprises, supporting industries, social housing, and green credit are likely to continue to benefit from preferential policies. Meanwhile, interest rates on medium and long-term loans, real estate consumer loans, or loans with floating interest rates may decrease more slowly after the preferential period.
Ms. Pham Thi Thuy, Director of VietinBank's Hong Bang Branch, believes that reducing interest rates must be accompanied by controlling credit quality. "Banks must ensure that capital flows to the right purposes and is used correctly. If credit conditions are loosened, the risk of bad debt will return, creating pressure on both banks and customers," Ms. Thuy said.
Therefore, the logical trend in the near future is that lending interest rates may decrease further, but mainly for new loans, good customers, and priority sectors. For existing loans, the extent of the reduction will depend on the interest rate adjustment period, the cost of capital of each bank, and the financial health of the customer.
HA KIENSource: https://baohaiphong.vn/no-luc-ha-gia-von-tin-dung-543260.html
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