| Pepper price forecast for July 13, 2024: Will there be a shocking drop? Pepper price forecast for July 14, 2024: Continuing the downward trend to return to 150,000 VND/kg? |
Pepper price forecast on July 15, 2024 is stable at around 150,000 VND/kg. After 2 consecutive days of decline at the end of the week, domestic pepper prices have returned to the same level as at the beginning of the week.
According to farmers in pepper growing areas, although prices have increased, growers have not benefited much, because most of the old pepper gardens have been replaced by durian and some other crops with higher economic value. Due to the impact of climate change, pepper productivity has decreased sharply in recent years, averaging 20-30%.
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| Pepper price forecast on July 15, 2024: Stable around 150,000 VND/kg |
Notably, in late June and early July, in many areas, some agents kept farmers' goods and now turned to forcing down prices to force farmers to close their deals early.
Pepper consignment has always been a form of profit. At the beginning of the season after harvesting, people often consign pepper to purchasing agents with the mindset that if they store pepper themselves, they will lose volume. So when they need money, they will go to the agent to close the sale and collect the money.
In the domestic market, pepper prices today, July 14, 2024, in the Southeast region decreased slightly by 1,000 VND - 3,000 VND/kg in some localities, trading around 150,400 VND/kg, the highest purchase price in Ba Ria - Vung Tau and Dak Nong provinces was 151,000 VND/kg.
Dak Lak pepper price is purchased at 150,000 VND/kg, down 3,000 VND/kg compared to yesterday. Chu Se pepper price (Gia Lai) is currently at 150,000 VND/kg, down 2,000 VND compared to yesterday. Dak Nong pepper price today is recorded at 151,000 VND/kg, down 2,000 VND/kg compared to yesterday.
In the Southeast region, pepper prices also decreased compared to yesterday. Specifically, in Ba Ria - Vung Tau, prices decreased by 1,000 VND/kg to 151,000 VND/kg; in Binh Phuoc, they decreased by 2,000 VND/kg to 150,000 VND/kg.
The International Pepper Community (IPC) listed Lampung black pepper price (Indonesia) at 7,211 USD/ton; Brazilian black pepper price ASTA 570 at 7,150 USD/ton; Kuching black pepper price (Malaysia) ASTA at 7,500 USD/ton.
Muntok white pepper price is 9,182 USD/ton; Malaysian ASTA white pepper price is at 8,800 USD/ton.
Vietnamese black pepper prices remain at a high level, trading at 6,000 USD/ton for 500 g/l; 6,600 USD/ton for 550 g/l; white pepper prices at 8,800 USD/ton. IPC maintains pepper prices in Indonesia, Brazil, and Vietnam.
Domestic pepper price on July 14 , 2024
Province, city | Unit | Trader purchase price | Increase/decrease compared to yesterday |
Chu Se (Gia Lai) | VND/kg | 150,000 | -2,000 |
Dak Lak | VND/kg | 150,000 | -3,000 |
Dak Nong | VND/kg | 151,000 | -2,000 |
Binh Phuoc | VND/kg | 150,000 | -2,000 |
Ba Ria - Vung Tau | VND/kg | 151,000 | -1 |
According to the Department of Crop Production (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development), by the end of 2017, the country had 153,000 hectares of pepper. However, by 2023, the pepper growing area will be only 115,000 hectares due to oversupply in the previous cycle, causing pepper prices to drop, pepper growers to suffer heavy losses and be forced to destroy their gardens. This is causing pepper output to decrease rapidly, helping pepper prices to remain high.
The global pepper market is valued at 5.43 billion USD, with an average growth forecast of more than 20% in the period 2024 - 2032. Vietnam's current problem is how to stabilize pepper output at 170,000 - 190,000 tons to maintain the position of Vietnamese pepper in the world market.
The Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association (VPSA) believes that the core issue in maintaining pepper acreage and output is to ensure good prices for farmers so that they continue to stick with this crop.
Although pepper prices are around high levels, people are still not interested in expanding pepper cultivation areas again.
The Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association quoted experts as saying that signs of supply shortage compared to demand will continue to be recorded in the coming time until the crop season.
Brazil’s 2024 pepper harvest is not expected to hit the market for another two months, with output likely to be down 20-25%. As of the end of May 2024, Brazil had exported 31,846 tons of pepper, down 8% year-on-year.
In the long term, in the next 3-5 years, the amount of pepper produced cannot meet the world's consumption demand. Ptexim Corp's market update report last week stated that the amount of pepper supplied to the market is not much. Transportation costs continue to increase rapidly and are forecast to remain high until 2025.
*Information for reference only. Prices may vary depending on time and location.
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