Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang: Double-digit economic growth is entirely feasible.

This is the opinion of Associate Professor Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang (Institute of International Trade and Economics , National Economics University).

- Expert, how do you assess the resilience of the Vietnamese economy during the 13th Party Congress term?

The term of the 13th National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam, spanning from 2021 to 2026, holds special significance in the country's development history since the Doi Moi (Renovation) period in 1986. This is a period of accelerated progress towards a strong transformation from a lower-middle-income country to an upper-middle-income country by 2030, and towards becoming a high-income industrialized nation by 2045.

Vietnam has developed a very high level of economic resilience. The country rose from a state of blockade, embargo, and isolation during the long period from 1978 to 1994. The country remained strong in the face of the crisis of the socialist system in 1991.

The country's remarkable resilience is also demonstrated by its ability to maintain positive growth even when other countries experienced negative growth due to the severe impacts of the 1997 Asian financial crisis, the 2008 global financial crisis and economic downturn, the COVID-19 pandemic, supply chain disruptions, and strategic competition among major powers during 2020-2022. The country recovered strongly from 2023 onwards, continuously and significantly accumulating internal strength in 2024 and 2025, even during the period when the United States imposed retaliatory tariffs on over 70 countries.

The 40 years of reform have also been an invaluable period for Vietnam to accumulate solid and almost maximum internal strength, attracting significant external resources into areas with high comparative advantages to create resilience beyond expectations. This is also a period of consolidating its position, improving its development capacity, and strengthening its determination to achieve the set strategic goals.

With the establishment of a new growth model and the vigorous improvement of institutions through a series of resolutions creating favorable conditions and encouraging the highest level of development in all sectors, the economy has shifted from relying heavily on capital and labor to leveraging resources, capabilities, and the driving forces of science and technology, innovation, and accelerating national digital transformation . Consequently, the economic structure has undergone a fundamental shift.

In 2025, the agricultural sector's share will decrease to 11.64% from 12.02% in 2024, a reduction of 0.38%. The increase in industry and services demonstrates a correct and cautious structural shift, based on steadily developing the position and role of industry and services. While strongly developing industry and services, the role of agriculture will not be overlooked.

- What factors will help further strengthen the resilience of the economy in the coming period, expert?

During the period 2026-2030, the economic structure will certainly undergo a fundamental shift. The proportion of agriculture may decrease by an average of 0.5% - 0.6% annually - higher than in the previous period. Accordingly, the proportion of agriculture will decrease to 8.5% - 9% by 2030, but it will be a modern, smart, and civilized agricultural system.

Meanwhile, industry and services increased by nearly 90%, with high-tech, sophisticated, smart, strategic technology, and strategic technology product industries receiving the highest level of investment and development. The ICOR coefficient decreased from 4.5 to 3.0, and total factor productivity (TFP) increased from 45% to 55%.

All these factors create a robust ecosystem, a tight and efficient industrial and economic structure, and a high resilience to all uncertain impacts, both internal and external. Innovation is both a pillar and a powerful driving force for development, with a significant ripple effect on all sectors of the economy.

This confirms that resilience continues to improve alongside relentless development. High resilience, strong competitiveness, and unprecedentedly improved efficiency will provide a solid foundation for achieving the highest growth rate. In fact, growth in 2025 reached 8.02%, meeting the set target. One of the important reasons for this is the strengthening of the economy's resilience.

- Can the expert comment on the growth potential for the coming period?

With its accumulated resilience, well-prepared resources, and almost sufficient capacity to withstand unpredictable, unexpected, and multifaceted impacts, the Vietnamese economy has a solid foundation to transform challenges posed by competition, technological advancements, and adjustments in the foreign policies of major countries into opportunities for continuous development. Therefore, achieving high double-digit growth is entirely realistic.

Furthermore, with the establishment of a new growth model based on scientific and technological progress, innovation, and national digital transformation, investment in this pillar could increase four to five times compared to the previous period. This would have a ripple effect on the rest of the economy, creating momentum for strong development and providing impetus to continue attracting high-quality resources both domestically and internationally on a larger scale, with greater intensity, and in a shorter timeframe.

The new impetus comes from a new mindset, including renewing traditional growth drivers such as increasing the scale and decisively implementing public investment in a short period, reducing the ICOR coefficient, minimizing waste, increasing import and export turnover to between 1,000 and 1,200 billion USD, attracting direct investment in high technology and zero-emission technologies by 2050, and with a record figure, potentially attracting an average of 30 billion USD per year throughout the period until 2030.

Private investment momentum continues to be strengthened as the private sector's fundamental potential is unleashed by Resolution 68, potentially allowing for the transformation of inefficient collective and state-owned enterprises into the private sector. Consumption momentum is improved due to substantial and in-depth improvements in personal income tax, household business tax, and corporate tax policies. A streamlined administrative apparatus will reduce costs and time for businesses and citizens. The increase in services, especially attracting domestic and international tourists, will create new records in boosting aggregate final consumption demand.

Simultaneously, the latest growth drivers—digital transformation, green transformation, energy transition, digital economy, circular economy, heritage economy, and creative economy—will be strongly invested in and developed. The rapid operation of the two international financial centers in Da Nang and Ho Chi Minh City will create further impetus for the sustainable development of the financial sector, maximizing the mobilization of domestic and international financial resources.

Locally specific mechanisms will further incentivize the creation of new local governance models, similar to those in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, to fully utilize local potential and promote improved development efficiency. In addition, the development of many new business models, especially digital businesses, and the formation of many new enterprises and corporations will create additional forces and impetus for development, stimulating both demand and supply.

Thank you, sir!

It is evident that the solid foundations for the successful implementation of the new growth model established from 2026 onwards have been laid throughout 40 years of reform.

Source: https://moit.gov.vn/tin-tuc/pgs.ts.-nguyen-thuong-lang-kha-nang-chong-chiu-cua-nen-kinh-te-duoc-tang-cuong.html