The most absurd World Cup ticket

San Marino (left) unexpectedly has a chance to win a ticket to the World Cup.

San Marino have never emerged from the shadow of the world's weakest team. With a population of just over 34,000, this tiny team is used to heavy defeats. They are ranked 210th in FIFA, scored just one goal in their World Cup qualifying campaign and conceded 32.

Dreams come true

In that context, dreaming of the World Cup seemed almost impossible. But football always contains paradoxes. With the World Cup format expanded to 48 teams, San Marino suddenly faced the strangest door in the history of qualifying.

San Marino's chance comes in the UEFA Nations League. In 2024/25, they topped their three-team group after two wins against Liechtenstein and a crucial draw against Gibraltar. That puts them in the group of 14 teams that could get one of four special play-off spots in the Nations League.

However, San Marino are at the bottom of the list. To be promoted, they must wait for at least 10 of the 13 teams above them to qualify for the World Cup without needing a Nations League spot.

By the final round, eight of those teams had already secured their places. San Marino needed just two more to make it into the top two of the qualifying group. And this is where the race took an unexpected turn.

If Northern Ireland beat Slovakia in their crucial game, they will finish second in Group A. If Romania beat Bosnia & Herzegovina, they will be level on points with Bosnia in Group H. Romania then go into their final game hoping to finish second. Their opponents? San Marino.

This leads to a paradoxical scenario: San Marino has an incentive to… lose to Romania as much as possible. Because if Romania finishes second in Group H, they will no longer need a Nations League spot.

And that spot, according to calculations, will fall into the hands of San Marino. A disastrous defeat could become the door for the weakest team in the world to enter the play-off round for a World Cup ticket.

San Marino is on the verge of writing its strangest chapter yet.

What scenario next?

This scenario immediately reminded many people of the “Gijon Disaster” in 1982, when West Germany and Austria were accused of deliberately keeping the score to eliminate Algeria. Since that incident, FIFA has required the final group stage matches to take place at the same time.

However, the current World Cup qualifiers do not apply that rule, so everything remains at risk of an absurd scenario.

In this context, the question for sports bettors becomes interesting: how do bookmakers quote their odds? San Marino are the deepest underdogs possible. They were listed at +1300 against Cyprus and 100-1 against Austria. Such odds reflect the almost absolute gap between them and the rest of Europe.

If San Marino go into the final game with momentum running out, Romania could be listed at such a deep handicap that there are no more direct winning bets.

According to the big bookmakers, the World Cup qualifiers are not a market that many players are interested in. But they still record a large number of players who like the “fairy tale effect”, betting a few dollars on San Marino to win with odds that last like magic. That creates small but interesting responsibilities for the bookmakers in each match of the tiny team.

FIFA increases the number of teams participating in the 2026 World Cup from 32 to 48.

However, for this absurd scenario to occur, two conditions must occur. Northern Ireland must beat Slovakia. Romania must beat Bosnia. Therefore, most bookmakers wait for the result of the Bosnia-Romania match before offering odds for the Romania-San Marino match.

On balance, it would not be unusual for San Marino to lose their final game by a large margin. They lost 10-0 to Austria in their current qualifying campaign. If they were to suffer another 8-0 or 9-0 defeat, it would be almost impossible to prove they were “playing dishonestly”.

If the strangest thing happens, San Marino will have a chance to enter the World Cup playoffs with a heavy defeat. World football has seen strange stories. But the weakest team on the planet getting close to the World Cup thanks to… a heavy defeat would be the biggest shock of qualifying in decades.

Football has always created the most unlikely stories. And San Marino are on the verge of writing their strangest chapter yet - through what they are most familiar with: failure.

Source: https://znews.vn/tam-ve-world-cup-phi-ly-nhat-post1602509.html