Accelerating credit at the end of the year

Customer transactions at the Cooperative Bank, Ha Nam Branch, Ninh Binh Province. (Photo: HOANG GIAP)

According to a report recently released by S&P Global, Vietnam's manufacturing industry witnessed an improvement in growth momentum in the first quarter of 2025, when the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) soared to 54.5 points in October, the highest level since July 2024. This remarkable growth was driven by a sharp increase in output and new orders.

Unblocking capital, supporting production and business

The macro picture for the first 10 months of 2025 shows a simultaneous recovery momentum in both supply and demand. According to the General Statistics Office, over the past 10 months, the industrial production index (IIP) increased by about 9.2% over the same period, in which the processing and manufacturing industry remained the main driving force, maintaining an increase of 10.5%.

Total import-export turnover of goods reached about 762.4 billion USD, up 17.4%, of which export reached 391 billion USD, up 16.2%, import reached 371.4 billion USD, up 18.6%, contributing to maintaining a stable trade surplus.

The trade balance still has a trade surplus of nearly 19.6 billion USD, creating a "buffer" for macroeconomic and exchange rate stability. Along with that, the average CPI in the first 10 months increased by 3.27%, below the Government 's target of 4%, creating room for credit capital to continue to flow with reasonable interest rates for production and business.

Currently, the common short-term lending interest rate for priority sectors is 3.9%/year, while the medium and long-term lending interest rate is about 6.5-8.8%/year, the lowest in many years.

Dr. Can Van Luc, Chief Economist of BIDV, commented: "It is forecasted that by the end of 2025, the basic mobilization interest rate will be stable, possibly increasing slightly at some points; but the lending interest rate level in general will remain low, continuing to support businesses in recovering production."

On the capital supply side, according to updated data from the State Bank of Vietnam, by the end of September, outstanding credit balance of the whole system increased by about 13.37% compared to the end of 2024, significantly higher than the same period last year, showing a trend of each month being higher than the previous month.

Of which, 78% of total outstanding loans serve production and business, reflecting the management orientation closely following the growth drivers required by the Government. At the same time, the "picture" of the commercial banking sector also shows the openness of credit flows.

Total outstanding customer loans of 27 listed banks by the end of the third quarter of 2025 reached about VND13.6 million billion, up 15% compared to the end of 2024, in which many banks recorded double-digit increases, reflecting improved capital supply capacity for the economy and capital absorption needs.

Meanwhile, in many localities, credit has become a direct lever to promote production. In Ninh Binh province, Hai Huong Forest Products Company Limited (Phu Ly) is a typical example. This enterprise operates in many sectors, in which the main business is the production of wooden construction products and recently expanded its investment in a river-in-pond model for fish farming.

“To complete and put into operation at the end of the year, we really need working capital. With an outstanding debt at the Cooperative Bank Ha Nam Branch of about 9 billion VND, bank capital has always been a reliable companion with us for more than ten years,” Director Lai Van Hai shared.

The story of Hai Huong enterprise is a vivid proof that credit is going to the right address, helping to maintain production, create jobs and livelihoods for local workers.

Flexible "open valve" control

Not only has the scale of credit expanded, but the quality of credit capital has also changed dramatically. According to the State Bank of Vietnam, by mid-2025, green credit balance will reach nearly VND730 trillion, accounting for 4.3% of total outstanding loans, mainly focusing on renewable energy, clean agriculture, and energy-saving projects.

This is one of the strategic directions for the banking industry to accompany the Government in realizing the goal of green growth and sustainable development. In addition, digital credit is emerging as an “extended arm” of banks in expanding access to capital.

In the first nine months of the year, cashless payments increased by more than 43% in quantity and 24% in value, QR transactions increased by 150%, creating a transparent cash flow data platform, helping banks speed up the credit scoring process and shorten disbursement time, especially for small and medium enterprises.

Dr. Nguyen Quoc Hung, Vice Chairman and General Secretary of the Vietnam Banks Association, said that the banking industry is entering a period of strong digital acceleration, with more than 95% of transactions at major banks being conducted via digital channels and the digital payment ecosystem is expanding.

Banks are shifting strongly to real-data lending, combining electronic identification (eKYC), electronic invoices and payment accounts, which is a breakthrough to expand credit safely, transparently, reduce capital costs and risks. However, the rapid growth of credit also brings with it management pressure.

According to the State Bank of Vietnam, by the end of October, real estate credit increased by about 19% compared to the beginning of the year, faster than the average, mainly focusing on the commercial housing segment and project renovation.

Economist, Dr. Dinh The Hien said, credit growth in the first nine months reached about 13% but real estate market capital growth was significantly higher, nearly 20%, with August and September alone increasing very strongly.

“Real estate credit is increasing strongly but needs to be closely monitored to avoid shifting to speculation or projects with incomplete legal documents, causing liquidity risks,” Mr. Hien warned.

Meanwhile, according to Dragon Capital Securities Company (VDSC), by the end of the third quarter of 2025, capital mobilization of listed banks increased by only 11.4%, much lower than the credit growth rate (about 15%). The gap between these two indicators widened again after a period of near-balance at the end of the second quarter, reflecting that the lending rate far exceeded the capital mobilization capacity.

Rapid credit growth while capital mobilization increases slowly may cause liquidity pressure, especially at the end of the year. With the prospect of credit continuing to accelerate, the analysis team of the Vietnam Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade Securities Company (VCBS) forecasts credit growth for the whole year to reach 18-20%.

Experts from UOB Vietnam Bank said that system-wide credit this year could reach 19-20% in the context of stable monetary policy and recovering loan demand, far exceeding the State Bank of Vietnam's target of 16%.

Sharing the same view, Associate Professor, Dr. Nguyen Xuan Thanh (Fulbright School of Public Policy and Management) also said that the credit growth target of 18 to 20% for 2025 is completely feasible, but the important thing is to go hand in hand with quality, to ensure that capital flows into areas that create real value, and to avoid bad debt risks.

Deputy Governor of the State Bank of Vietnam Pham Thanh Ha emphasized the consistent management viewpoint of maintaining low operating interest rates, flexible exchange rates, focusing credit on production, business, and priority sectors, while controlling risks in "hot" areas such as real estate and securities.

Entering the final months of the year, the State Bank of Vietnam requires the system to closely follow macroeconomic developments, ensure safe and effective credit growth, and quickly remove obstacles so that capital flows to the right destination.

Source: https://baoquangninh.vn/tang-toc-tin-dung-cuoi-nam-3384464.html