Credit growth in 2026: Prioritizing quality.

In 2026, amidst the economic demand for high growth, aiming for 10% or more while maintaining macroeconomic stability, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has set a target of approximately 15% for credit growth across the entire system, subject to adjustments based on actual developments.

This orientation aims to contribute to controlling inflation, stabilizing the macroeconomy , supporting growth, and ensuring the safety of the credit institution system.

The State Bank of Vietnam requires credit institutions to control the credit growth rate in the first three months of the year so that it does not exceed 25% of the annual target.

Similar to its operational approach in recent years, the State Bank of Vietnam continues to allocate credit limits at the beginning of the year, allowing credit institutions to proactively plan their business strategies. The State Bank will then proactively review and adjust the targets of each institution as needed, without requiring banks to submit written requests as before.

According to Mr. Nguyen Duc Lenh, Deputy Director of the State Bank of Vietnam's Regional Branch 2, this management approach reflects a policy mindset that is more adaptable to market developments. "Overall, based on economic growth, inflation trends, the money market, and system safety requirements, credit targets are managed flexibly to improve the effectiveness of monetary policy implementation, while promptly meeting capital needs for production and business," Mr. Nguyen Duc Lenh assessed.

The credit growth target for 2026 is set at around 15%, lower than the 16% target of 2025. According to many experts, given the current scale of credit, this target is reasonable.

According to Dr. Chau Dinh Linh from the Ho Chi Minh City University of Banking, the current credit-to-GDP ratio is high at around 146%, a "yellow light" warning sign indicating a potential shift to a red light. This suggests that if not adjusted promptly, it could put pressure on the safety of the banking system. Although many Vietnamese banks have adopted international standards such as Basel II and Basel III, implementation has not been consistent across the entire system. Therefore, ensuring the safety of credit institutions remains a priority. Furthermore, the State Bank of Vietnam has issued a message that it will manage flexibly while maintaining control, ensuring both economic growth support and limiting capital flows into potentially risky sectors. A 15% credit growth rate is still considered high and provides good support for economic growth, provided that credit is channeled into productive business sectors.

In addition, the State Bank of Vietnam will continue to flexibly adjust lending rates to suit the reality, potentially increasing rates for well-performing banks with effective credit growth. The expert emphasized that the State Bank of Vietnam has actually done very well in this regard over the past several years.

In a recent assessment, the research team from Mirae Asset Vietnam Securities Company also stated that credit growth is expected to slow down this year despite higher economic growth targets, mainly due to several factors such as: credit growth in 2025 has already reached a historical high; the regulatory authorities are concerned about inefficient capital utilization, which somewhat affects the shaping of monetary policy; and there is a need to improve credit quality to promote more sustainable growth pillars rather than simply easing monetary policy.

"Credit growth is expected to continue at a moderate pace, with the focus shifting from asset investment to production and business activities, in line with the criteria for sustainable growth," Mirae Asset's analysis team commented.

Sharing the same view, Ms. Nguyen Thuy Hanh, General Director of Standard Chartered Vietnam, believes that the core issue lies not in the absolute numbers but in how capital is allocated. Regular disbursement, prioritizing production and business activities and real estate segments that serve real needs, will help better control bad debt and ensure that capital flows into areas that create sustainable economic value.

One of the new points in this year's operational guidelines is the State Bank of Vietnam's requirement for credit institutions to control the credit growth rate in the first three months of the year so that it does not exceed 25% of the annual target, avoiding the situation of concentrating capital at certain times, putting pressure on liquidity and systemic risk. In addition, the State Bank of Vietnam requires credit institutions to control the credit growth rate for the real estate sector in 2026 so that it does not exceed the overall growth rate compared to the end of 2025 for that same institution.

According to Ms. Hanh, this orientation presents both a challenge and an opportunity to improve corporate governance. For industries with high cyclical nature, especially those requiring capital concentrated towards the end of the year, this requirement compels businesses to develop more specific and realistic production and business plans and financial roadmaps from the beginning of the year. When businesses proactively plan, operations will be more smoothly coordinated with regulatory agencies, avoiding a reactive or exhausting situation in the final stages.

In addition, the State Bank of Vietnam also requires credit institutions to seriously, fully, and promptly implement the Government 's directives on effectively and timely deploying solutions to ensure that capital flows into production and business, priority sectors, and growth drivers of the economy, while strictly controlling sectors with potential risks, with real estate continuing to be closely monitored in terms of growth rate. Simultaneously, credit is also being more closely oriented towards social welfare goals. This approach helps the system both support the market and effectively control credit quality and bad debt risks.

At the same time, credit institutions are required to increase credit growth safely and in accordance with the law, based on their risk management capacity, liquidity situation, and ability to mobilize capital; ensure the maintenance of safety ratios, especially liquidity and solvency ratios; improve credit quality; use capital for the right purposes and effectively; limit the 발생 of bad debts, and ensure operational safety.

Source: https://thoibaonganhang.vn/tang-truong-tin-dung-2026-uu-tien-chat-luong-176711.html