After years of rapid growth, Tesla’s auto business is shrinking even as the global electric vehicle market continues to expand. Tesla’s global deliveries are expected to fall 7% this year, following a 1% decline in 2024, according to Visible Alpha. The third-quarter delivery record was driven by a wave of US customers taking delivery of their vehicles before the federal tax credit expires on September 30, which does not reflect sustainable growth. Tesla withdrew guidance from its leadership’s expectation of 20%–30% growth in 2025 and tied its future outlook to macro conditions, autonomous driving developments, and the ability to ramp up factory output.
Signals of loss of breath through key numbers
| Indicator | Data | Source/Context |
|---|---|---|
| Worldwide delivery | -7% (this year); -1% (2024) | Visible Alpha |
| Europe October | Tesla sales -48.5% YoY | European Automobile Manufacturers Association |
| Europe since the beginning of the year | Tesla production -30%; EV market +26% | Regional data |
| China October | Car delivery -35.8%; lowest in 3 years | Market data |
| China YTD | -8.4% | Market data |
| US September → October | +18% (9) → -24% (10) | Tax credit effect expires September 30 |
| Price adjustment | About $5,000 off select Model 3/Y models | Tax incentive compensation measures |
Europe changes direction sharply, the competitive landscape changes
Europe has seen the sharpest reversal. Tesla sales fell 48.5% in October compared to the same period last year. Since the start of the year, the company’s production in the region has fallen about 30%, while EV sales in the overall market have increased by 26%. The retail landscape is no longer the same as it was a decade ago: many electric cars under $30,000 have appeared, and Chinese manufacturers are on the offensive.
The tumultuous period began late last year when public praise from leaders for far-right figures sparked protests and boycotts in some European markets. Despite less political rhetoric in recent months, the trade recovery has yet to return.
Fierce China, Model Y under direct pressure
In China, the epicenter of the electric car race, Tesla remains a major competitor but is losing market share. October deliveries fell 35.8% to a three-year low; year-to-date they are down 8.4%. Competition from domestic manufacturers is relentless, with frequent launches, price cuts, and technology upgrades tailored to local tastes.
The Model Y is under strong pressure from new rivals such as Xiaomi's YU7 crossover launched in June, targeting the mid-size SUV segment and a similar price range, alongside the return of long-standing brands such as Chery.
US ups and downs with tax incentives
In the US, sales have fluctuated wildly: up 18% in September as customers took delivery of their cars before federal tax incentives expired, then down 24% in October. Instead of a major product refresh, Tesla responded with price adjustments, cutting some Model 3 and Model Y configurations by about $5,000 to make up for the lost tax incentives.
Low-volume product portfolio, short-term rescue pricing strategy
Analysts say Tesla is competing on two mass-market models, the Model 3 and Model Y. The company recently added a lower-priced Model Y variant with fewer features to stimulate demand. In the UK, where there are more than 150 electric car models on sale, Electrifying predicts at least 50 new models will be launched next year, none of which will be Teslas. This suggests the company’s product cycle is thinner than its rivals.
Strategic signals: AI and robotaxi, but galleries need traction
While many believe Tesla needs a completely new, low-cost vehicle to revive sales, executives are emphasizing self-driving robotaxis and humanoid robots, betting the future on software and AI. The company now ties growth to macroeconomic conditions, advances in autonomous driving technology and the ability to ramp up factory output.
But the gap between future bets and showroom performance remains. Cheaper, faster-to-launch rivals are gaining ground, while price cuts are only temporary.
Conclude
The data suggests Tesla’s breakout period has given way to a defensive phase. With a strong portfolio based on the Model 3/Y, pressure in Europe and China, and dependence on tax incentives in the US are exposing the limits of its pricing strategy. Balancing long-term investments in AI/robotaxi with the urgent need to refresh its product cycle will determine Tesla’s resilience in an increasingly crowded and price-sensitive EV market.
Source: https://baonghean.vn/tesla-va-cap-model-3y-dau-hieu-hut-hoi-toan-cau-10313035.html
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