Stock market maintains 1,100 point threshold

Despite receiving positive macro news when the world interest rate is gradually peaking with the FED, ECB and BOE stopping raising interest rates for 3-4 consecutive meetings, the stock market's status last week was still fluctuating in the accumulation zone, but the market's reaction to a series of positive news made many investors very disappointed.

Foreign investors continued to have a very strong week of net selling with the net selling value on HOSE being over VND3,300 billion. The fierce selling pressure of foreign investors is a huge obstacle to the market's ability to increase points in the context of cautious individual investors and domestic institutional investors not forming a clear viewpoint.

Overall, the market is still moving in the accumulation zone and at a price level considered low when it has only recovered 1/3 of the previous decline. However, the current market breadth is not as low as we feel when looking at the general index, when up to 54% of stocks are above the 200-day moving average (MA200).

According to Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong, Investment Director of DGCapital, the stock market is likely to move sideways if only calculated in the short term of 1-2 weeks. Interest rates are lowered or about to be lowered as expected in the world, which often has more medium- and long-term significance. It should be noted that the Fed has been raising interest rates all year, but not only has the US stock market not been affected, but the DJ30 index has surpassed its historical peak. Therefore, these factors must trigger real cash flow, such as the fact that many places in the world have loosened monetary policy, but with high interest rates in the US, it attracts more money, and the US economy is still very strong, supporting the market.

Strategy analysts at DSC Securities Company believe that, normally, when the market declines by about 15-25% from the peak, the recovery effort of the market will be very difficult. The most positive scenario is that VN-Index accumulates above the bottom as it is currently moving, while the negative scenario is that it returns to retest the old bottom to form a second bottom.

In general, the market is still in short-term accumulation, investor sentiment is quite disappointed, but it is not easy for VN-Index to break through the support of 1,080 - 1,100 points, especially in the context of the world stock market is very prosperous. We believe that this week the market will continue to move in an accumulation trend, there may be short-term fluctuations below 1,100 points but it is difficult to create panic, DSC experts commented.

Agribank Securities Company also expressed the view that after each sharp decline, the market often has recovery periods, which also reflects investor sentiment and bottom-fishing cash flow in the market. However, with the downward trend in the medium term still playing a key role, it is necessary to limit the increase in disbursement, or use margin, and control the proportion of stocks in the portfolio at a safe level, corresponding to the level of risk acceptance.

Restructuring the portfolio to medium and long-term positions for stocks with good fundamentals, healthy financial situation, low debt ratio, and positive business prospects should be prioritized in the current period.

Source