Ending 19 consecutive weeks of net selling
It is noteworthy that foreign investors have returned to strong net buying, ending a streak of 19 consecutive weeks of net selling – helping the market strengthen sentiment even though liquidity has not yet broken out.
Foreign investors returned strongly, with a net purchase of nearly VND3,600 billion in the December 3 session, the highest level since the beginning of the year. During the entire week of December 1-5, foreign investors net bought VND4,329 billion. VPL led the net purchase value with nearly VND3,373 billion, while VHM was the most net sold (VND388.7 billion). The return of foreign capital is considered an important bright spot, helping the market balance in the context of weak domestic liquidity.
VN-Index increased by 2.98%, closing the week at 1,741.32 points, among the top 10 markets with the strongest growth in the world . However, the liquidity of the whole market only reached an average of 23,724 billion VND/session, showing that cash flow is still cautious.
The market's growth continues to rely heavily on the mainstay stocks Vingroup . The three codes VIC, VPL, VHM brought in a total of 23.5 points in the 50-point increase of the VN-Index this week. In the last 20 increasing sessions, this group alone contributed 61% of the index's growth.
However, market breadth has improved as banking, retail, consumer, securities and public investment groups have begun to see widespread demand. Top liquidity is still concentrated inSHB , VIX, MBB, SSI and HPG.
In parallel with the developments in the stock market, the interest rate level also had remarkable fluctuations. After the overnight interbank interest rate jumped to 7.48% on December 3, the State Bank immediately adjusted the interest rate for loans secured by valuable papers (OMO) from 4% to 4.5%, sending a clear signal of its policy to reduce interest rates and stabilize VND liquidity.
In the international market, the possibility of the Fed cutting 25 basis points at next week's meeting is forecast at 82.8% (CME FedWatch - a tool predicting the probability of Fed interest rate changes based on interest rate futures trading data at the CME Exchange)), expected to help reduce pressure on Asian currencies.
According to experts from Pinetree Securities JSC, the market has created a mid-term bottom at 1,580 points and maintained an upward trend despite macro fluctuations such as tight VND liquidity and rising interbank interest rates. However, the current uptrend lacks support from liquidity and is too dependent on the Vingroup group.
Many experts warn that if the VN-Index surpasses its historical peak of 1,800 points without expanding cash flow, the market is at risk of forming a "bull-trap" (a false price increase trap, when prices rise and then quickly reverse, causing investors who bought in high areas to be stuck). When the pillar group adjusts strongly, most stocks will be affected by the domino effect. However, the year-end outlook is still positive thanks to expectations of 2025 business results, along with the factor of upgrading the market in the review period of March 2026.
According to SSI Securities Corporation (SSI), VN-Index is heading towards its historical peak; resistance zone is 1,750 - 1,770 points, support at 1,720 points. Having a similar view, Asean Securities Corporation (AseanSC) believes that the market may continue to fluctuate around the 1,760 - 1,770 point range; support zone is near 1,720 points.
Vietcap Securities Joint Stock Company commented that the correction session on December 5 was a consolidation session. VN-Index may retest 1,730 points before reaching the 1,800 point zone.
Through the comments of securities companies, it can be seen that the market is approaching a strong resistance level, while liquidity has not improved accordingly. The developments of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will be the factor that governs the psychology of investors in the whole market.
If the VN-Index surpasses its peak with expanding cash flow and positive breadth, a new uptrend may form. On the contrary, if the dependence on a few pillar stocks continues, the risk of fluctuations and corrections remains high.
As global investors closely monitor the Fed’s interest rate meeting – a factor that is also affecting investor sentiment in the Vietnamese market – the US market’s performance over the weekend continued to reinforce expectations of monetary easing.
US stocks rose slightly
The US stock market improved last week and closed the session on December 5 with a slight increase, in the context of new economic data continuing to strengthen expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates at the meeting next week. At the end of the session, the Dow Jones increased 0.22% to 47,954.99 points, the S&P 500 increased 0.19% to 6,870.40 points and the Nasdaq increased 0.31% to 23,578.13 points. Overall, all three indexes had their second consecutive week of gains.
Market movements this week were largely driven by the return of economic data after a 43-day US government shutdown, along with growing expectations for the Fed to ease policy soon. The latest report showed that consumer spending – which accounts for more than two-thirds of GDP – increased 0.3% in September 2025, in line with forecasts; the PCE price index also increased 0.3%, suggesting inflationary pressures remain under control.
On the other hand, labor market data sent mixed signals: the private sector lost 32,000 jobs in November according to the ADP report, but the number of unemployment claims fell to a three-year low. This made investors wait more for the November non-farm payrolls report, released on December 16, to better assess the health of the economy.
An improvement in consumer confidence in the University of Michigan survey in early December also helped bolster expectations that the Fed would soon cut interest rates. According to the CME FedWatch tool, a system that forecasts the probability of interest rate adjustments based on futures data, the market is betting on a nearly 90% chance of a 0.25 percentage point cut at the Fed's next meeting. Analysts say the Fed may want to act early to prevent the temporary economic weakness from turning into a recession.
However, next week’s meeting is expected to be contentious, with major divisions within the Fed. At least five of the 12 voting members have expressed doubts or opposition to further easing. Michael Rosen, chief investment officer at Angeles Investments, said the level of dissent at the Fed is “greater than at any time in recent memory,” and dissenting votes will be a signal that markets pay particular attention to. The last time the FOMC had three or more dissenting votes was in 2019.
At the previous meeting, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid opposed a cut because he believed inflation was still high, while Governor Stephen Miran wanted a sharp 0.5 percentage point cut because inflation was falling faster than expected. This shows the Fed is having to balance the difficult balance between price stability and protecting the labor market.
Next week is considered a pivotal week with two key events: the Fed meeting on December 9-10 and the November 2025 employment report. Mr. Michael Sheldon (Washington Trust Wealth Management) commented that the biggest question now is not whether the Fed will cut or not - because most markets think it is almost certain - but what signal the Fed will give about policy in 2026. Investors will closely monitor updated economic forecasts and "dot plot" charts.
The November jobs report – the first comprehensive data since the government shutdown – is now forecast to show an increase of just 38,000 jobs, showing clear signs of cooling in the labor market.
Investors are also watching for the possibility of a “Santa Claus rally” – a rally that typically occurs in the last five sessions of the year and the first two sessions of the new year. Statistics since 1980 show that 73% of these periods have yielded positive results, with the S&P 500 averaging a 1.1% increase.
Source: https://baotintuc.vn/thi-truong-tien-te/thi-truong-chung-khoan-huong-ve-cuoc-hop-lai-suat-cuoi-nam-cua-fed-20251207162237847.htm
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