Oil prices surged amid concerns about geopolitical risks.
At the close of yesterday's trading session, all five commodities in the energy sector were in positive territory. Notably, WTI crude oil prices recorded a nearly 2.8% increase to $61.15 per barrel, while Brent crude oil prices also rose 1.8% to $65.47 per barrel.
According to MXV's assessment, escalating geopolitical tensions have pushed the market into a state of concern about supply disruptions, thereby providing upward support to world oil prices yesterday.
The global energy market is focusing on Iran after US President Donald Trump publicly warned of possible military intervention. Simultaneously, Washington announced it would impose a 25% tariff on any country that continues to maintain trade relations with Tehran. This tough stance has raised concerns about a disruption in the flow of Iranian crude oil to Asian markets, particularly to major partners like China and India, forcing these customers to seek alternative sources of supply in the short term.
In light of these fluctuations, international analysts estimate that the market has added approximately $3-4 per barrel as a "geopolitical risk premium" to the price of Brent crude oil. Notably, the price difference between Brent and Dubai crude has widened to $1.97 per barrel – the highest level since July. This reflects the fact that Asian importers are paying higher prices for Brent crude amid growing concerns about supply security from the Middle East.
Besides the Middle East, instability in the Black Sea is also putting significant pressure on supply chains. A series of drone attacks targeting Greek-managed oil tankers en route to Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) ports has exacerbated the situation. In fact, cargo handling at CPC was already hampered by infrastructure failures and maintenance schedules, coinciding with adverse weather conditions in the region.
Notably, the pace of cargo handling at CPC ports in January fell by as much as 70% compared to the plan, pushing actual export volumes down to a range of only 500,000 - 900,000 barrels per day.
The consequences of incidents in the Black Sea have driven up insurance costs for cargo ships transiting the region from 0.6-0.8% at the end of 2025 to approximately 1% of the ship's value. These logistical risks not only increase operating costs but also contribute to tightening the supply of crude oil on the international market.
Conversely, news that Venezuela has begun resuming exports under US supervision is expected to cool oil prices. However, this factor is currently overshadowed by the aforementioned geopolitical risks. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the severe deterioration of Venezuela's oil and gas infrastructure makes it unlikely that it can significantly increase production in the short term, despite possessing large reserves. Therefore, supply from this South American country is currently considered by the market to be a medium- and long-term issue, not yet strong enough to offset the existing supply shock from Iran and the Black Sea.
Conversely, pressure from the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Report (WASDE) continues to weigh on the global agricultural market. Notably, world soybean prices fell by nearly 1% after yesterday's trading session. Currently, the March soybean futures contract on the CBOT exchange stands at $381.7 per ton, the lowest since October 2025.
Accordingly, pressure weighed heavily on market sentiment when the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), in its latest WASDE report, lowered its forecast for US soybean exports to below 43 million tons in the 2025-2026 crop year, a decrease of nearly 3.7% compared to the previous month's report. At the same time, the USDA also revised upwards its forecasts for end-of-crop production and inventories in both the US and globally, creating significant pressure that kept soybean prices on the CBOT exchange trending downwards.
The downward trend in soybean prices was further reinforced by two additional reports from the USDA. The latest crop yield report showed that both actual planted area and production in the U.S. in 2025 increased slightly compared to previous estimates. Notably, the grain inventory report confirmed that U.S. soybean reserves as of December 1, 2025, had increased by 6.1% year-on-year.
Meanwhile, in South America, supply from Brazil is also putting pressure on world soybean prices. Data from the consulting firm AgRural shows that, as of January 8th, the soybean harvest for the 2025-2026 crop in Brazil had reached 0.6% of the planted area, double the rate of the same period last year. Harvesting is currently concentrated in key states such as Mato Grosso and Parana.
Conversely, the downward price trend was somewhat curbed by positive signals from Chinese demand.
Source: https://baochinhphu.vn/thi-truong-hang-hoa-sau-lap-dinh-5-nam-mxv-index-tiep-tuc-tang-hang-hoa-van-hut-dong-tien-10226011408500251.htm
Comment (0)